when would it ever be too late to announce a game? :S

I think they will make it. Pokemon looks better than expected.... Smash is a new game.

No fucking way. But it's going to be fun to see them trying.

EDIT: Ok, if they cut the price or release a new Switch version, like Switch Lite or Switch XL, yes. With the current information we have, no.

Yes.

Maybe.

But mainly, yes. Considering the projection was for FY '19, this should happen almost easily. Obviously shipped units though, because I doubt sales will reach higher than 17-18 million.

Those games are still charting on a weekly/monthly basis in all of the big regions.

Smash & Pokemon can each ship 10-15 million this fiscal year. So thats ~25 million with just those 2 titles.

Lets say the other 1st/2nd party titles like Labo, Tropical Freeze, Hyrule Warriors, Sushi Striker, Mario Tennis, Captain Toad, Octopath, Mario Party average ~1.5 million.

The big 4 of 2017 should each do a few million and the smaller exclusives of 2017 should each do a few 100k.

The 1st/2nd party titles alone can do ~60 million and as of March 31, 2018 1st/2nd party titles made up ~60% of total software so assuming a similar ratio this year and the numbers dont seem out of place.

Something to keep in mind when it comes to fiscal years for Nintendo.

We have ~9 months left, not the end of the year.

Fire Emblem can potentially make it for March. I'm not sure about Daemon x Machina as I haven't checked out the Treehouse footage. Looks interesting though.

Plus, there is bound to be another direct around the end of Summer/start of Fall.

Hmm, the fiscal year is young, so much is possible. So far it seems they might fall short. Pokemon and Smash surely will move units, but they come late, Pokemon will affect five months of sale, Smash even only four. So far it seems unlikely, but maybe I'll get surprised.

That 20m is shipped, so sell through need only be around 18-19 million. So far the Switch has sold 1.4m this fiscal year according to VGC, and it sold 170k on the latest update. If we assume it sells that much every week from June until November, that would be 3.7 million, for 5.1m total. This means Pokemon and Smash would have to push 13-14m systems in 5 months. I'm quite skeptical it'll happen, but we'll see!

EDIT: 3DS with the wombo combo of huge price cut, value saving bundle, SM3DL and MK7 still "only" managed 10m in the same 5 month period. Really don't think it's gonna happen unless Mario Tennis Aces/Octopath/Mario Party/etc. prove to be substantial enough that Switch reaches higher than 5m before November.

Last year Switch shipped like ~7.2 million from Oct-Dec with Mario Odyssey in Oct (~9m) & Xenoblade 2  in Dec (~1m) as 1st party titles.

This year has Mario Party in Oct (~1m), Pokemon in Nov (~10m) & Smash Bros in Dec (~10m) as first party titles.

On top of that, this year could have holiday bundles/deals unlike last year. It wouldnt surprise me if they ship 10 million Switches in that quarter alone.

I'm aware how holidays drive sales. But still I think they'll fall short. I think Nintendo needs to ramp up to 200K weekly at the end of Q2.