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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many million sellers will the Switch have in its second year?

 

How many million sellers will the Switch have in its second year?

1-2 6 6.90%
 
3-4 6 6.90%
 
5-6. 10 11.49%
 
7-8 10 11.49%
 
9-10 15 17.24%
 
More than 10 million sellers. 40 45.98%
 
Total:87
MasonADC on 22 April 2018
CrazyGamer2017 said:

This is tricky by nature and all we can do is venture a guess. So here is mine:

I think the Switch will calm down a bit in sales this second year, the only "big gun" left to be released now is Metroid Prime 4

This first year it sold what again? 14 million units, give or take?

So I will go with 9 - 10 million units this second year. Less does not seem realistic as the Switch definitely has traction. More is possible if other big guns appear.

Let's wait and see what the real figures will be. But I say 24 - 25 million Switches sold in total by early March 2019.

1.This isn't what the OP is asking.

2. What about smash, pokemon, animal crossing, or 2d Mario. I would be surprised if Metroid Prime 4 can reach 4 million units.



CrazyGamer2017 on 22 April 2018
MasonADC said:

1.This isn't what the OP is asking.

2. What about smash, pokemon, animal crossing, or 2d Mario. I would be surprised if Metroid Prime 4 can reach 4 million units.

Oh shit you're right, I totally misconstrued the OP's post. Not sure why I thought this was about the Switch's sales this second year LOL.

As for your second point: I agree with a second Mario but I did not hear a second Mario game announced so to me MP4 is the only big gun left coming for sure and I don't see Smash, Pokemon or Animal Crossing as big guns. They are important games but I consider Mario/Metroid Prime/Zelda to be the biggest guns.



DonFerrari on 22 April 2018

Considering the Pace PS4 had and that Switch is doing really well as well, over 10 seems like the only valid option to me.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Ulternia on 22 April 2018

I’ll be optimistic and guess 18. Skyrim, Yokai Watch 4, Smash, Kirby, Yoshi, FIFA, Wolfenstein II, DOOM, MARIO Tennis, Labo, Octopath Traveler, Animal Crossing, Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze, Dark Souls Remastered and then maybe three or four more unannounced games.



MasonADC on 22 April 2018
CrazyGamer2017 said:
MasonADC said:

1.This isn't what the OP is asking.

2. What about smash, pokemon, animal crossing, or 2d Mario. I would be surprised if Metroid Prime 4 can reach 4 million units.

Oh shit you're right, I totally misconstrued the OP's post. Not sure why I thought this was about the Switch's sales this second year LOL.

As for your second point: I agree with a second Mario but I did not hear a second Mario game announced so to me MP4 is the only big gun left coming for sure and I don't see Smash, Pokemon or Animal Crossing as big guns. They are important games but I consider Mario/Metroid Prime/Zelda to be the biggest guns.

What do we mean by big guns? Like scope? Then you would be right. In terms of sales? Metroid wouldn't be close. I think the 4 games that I mention would be considered more important in the long term



p0isonparadise on 22 April 2018
CrazyGamer2017 said:
MasonADC said:

1.This isn't what the OP is asking.

2. What about smash, pokemon, animal crossing, or 2d Mario. I would be surprised if Metroid Prime 4 can reach 4 million units.

As for your second point: I agree with a second Mario but I did not hear a second Mario game announced so to me MP4 is the only big gun left coming for sure and I don't see Smash, Pokemon or Animal Crossing as big guns. They are important games but I consider Mario/Metroid Prime/Zelda to be the biggest guns.

Metroid a "big gun"? On the same level with Mario and Zelda? Bigger than AC, Pokemon, and Smash? 

Are you on drugs?



Mbolibombo on 22 April 2018

This fiscal year I think the following games will hit 1M

Skyrim - will push 1M units
Fifa 18 - will push 1M units - World Cup will help out
Kirby - probably there already
Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze - It's getting there
Minecraft - I think it has already, but no confirmation
Rocketleague - I could see it being there already. But certainly in this fiscal year if not already.
Smash Bros - Slamdunk
Octopath Traveller - Heavily pushed by Nintendo. This will hit 1M
Nintendo Labo - Yeah I think it hits 1M
Fifa 19 - With a growing userbase, I think it's getting there. And comfortably so.
Mario Tennis - New first party game. Will hit 1M
Fire Emblem Switch - If it actually releases this year
Yoshi - Yep

Possibilities:
Captain Toad
Hyrule Warriors
Street Fighter 30th anniversary collection - The success of USF2 may make it happen
Sonic Forces - if heavily discounted I could see it happen
Crash Bandicoot Trilogy - Not counting on it, but I dont see why not.
Mega Man 11 - That would be a sight.. ^^


And since we dont really know how the second half of the year turns out and I still have counted 13 games.. I'm pretty confident that we're going to see at least 15 games sell 1M or more from march '18- march '19

Anything under 10 would be close to impossible.



DreadPirateRoberts on 22 April 2018

Kirby and Smash are guarantees. Based off VGChartz estimates, I would bet on Skyrim and FIFA 18 reaching that mark this year. If you count all SKUs of Labo as one, it likely does as well. DKTF will. Captain Toad should. Yoshi will if it comes out this year. If Octopath is received as well as the demo was, it should as well.

Add in a surprise or two, that could mean as many as 10 or 11.  Though, I'm erring on the side of caution and voting 7-8.



OTBWY on 22 April 2018
CrazyGamer2017 said:
MasonADC said:

1.This isn't what the OP is asking.

2. What about smash, pokemon, animal crossing, or 2d Mario. I would be surprised if Metroid Prime 4 can reach 4 million units.

Oh shit you're right, I totally misconstrued the OP's post. Not sure why I thought this was about the Switch's sales this second year LOL.

As for your second point: I agree with a second Mario but I did not hear a second Mario game announced so to me MP4 is the only big gun left coming for sure and I don't see Smash, Pokemon or Animal Crossing as big guns. They are important games but I consider Mario/Metroid Prime/Zelda to be the biggest guns.

Jesus lord have mercy.

https://media1.giphy.com/media/CoDp6NnSmItoY/200.gif



Wyrdness on 22 April 2018
CrazyGamer2017 said:
MasonADC said:

1.This isn't what the OP is asking.

2. What about smash, pokemon, animal crossing, or 2d Mario. I would be surprised if Metroid Prime 4 can reach 4 million units.

Oh shit you're right, I totally misconstrued the OP's post. Not sure why I thought this was about the Switch's sales this second year LOL.

As for your second point: I agree with a second Mario but I did not hear a second Mario game announced so to me MP4 is the only big gun left coming for sure and I don't see Smash, Pokemon or Animal Crossing as big guns. They are important games but I consider Mario/Metroid Prime/Zelda to be the biggest guns.