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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - [Updated] [Super Bold Prediction] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Will Sell 20m Lifetime

 

Will it?

Yes 19 24.68%
 
No 33 42.86%
 
It will be very close 25 32.47%
 
Total:77
DonFerrari on 02 May 2018
Roar_Of_War said:
DonFerrari said:

To make a title that made 10M on its first year into a LT 20M is no small task.

BOTW has shown considerable legs to get to that 10 million already, and without any price cuts.

You do realize that Horizon, a new IP, sold 7.6 million in a year with massive price cuts, deals and a complete edition. What do you think Zelda, a long standing series that has sold even better and faster than Horizon without all of those benefits, can do once it receives them?

15 million seems like a lock. 20 million isn’t out of the question lifetime. Not for sure, but not ‘a stretch’. Just a max expectation prediction.

I do realize all that and haven't said it's imposible, just a very big accomplishment.

Also it is easier for a new IP to have more late life sales than earlier because of word of mouth, than old IPs because those people already go for the release.

LipeJJ said:
DonFerrari said:

To make a title that made 10M on its first year into a LT 20M is no small task.

I know, that's why I still consider it to be bold, just not super bold anymore.

Roar_Of_War said:

BOTW has shown considerable legs to get to that 10 million already, and without any price cuts.

You do realize that Horizon, a new IP, sold 7.6 million in a year with massive price cuts, deals and a complete edition. What do you think Zelda, a long standing series that has sold even better and faster than Horizon without all of those benefits, can do once it receives them?

15 million seems like a lock. 20 million isn’t out of the question lifetime. Not for sure, but not ‘a stretch’. Just a max expectation prediction.

Exactly. The game will still be selling well in the next 2 years, and then Nintendo can always turn it into a Nintendo Select, cutting the price to $30, do special bundles for the holidays, etc.

Well it will be a waiting game and most will be happy if they achieve it.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

IkePoR on 02 May 2018

10m in the first year says it'll easily reach it.

Keeping it's current pace - another 1.5m by years end.

Holiday pack-in treatment - 2-4m.

Discounts next year, another million.

Nintendo Selects range at 20-30$ - give it 1.5 years and it'll get to 20m no fuss.



"You should be banned. Youre clearly flaming the president and even his brother who you know nothing about. Dont be such a partisan hack"

tbone51 on 02 May 2018
contestgamer said:
Unlikely, it's too much of a niche title to go mainstream, 12 mil at best

Joke post? :P

 

Thought this was a tbone thread, i was actually thinking of making this



Roar_Of_War on 02 May 2018
DonFerrari said:
Roar_Of_War said:

BOTW has shown considerable legs to get to that 10 million already, and without any price cuts.

You do realize that Horizon, a new IP, sold 7.6 million in a year with massive price cuts, deals and a complete edition. What do you think Zelda, a long standing series that has sold even better and faster than Horizon without all of those benefits, can do once it receives them?

15 million seems like a lock. 20 million isn’t out of the question lifetime. Not for sure, but not ‘a stretch’. Just a max expectation prediction.

I do realize all that and haven't said it's imposible, just a very big accomplishment.

Also it is easier for a new IP to have more late life sales than earlier because of word of mouth, than old IPs because those people already go for the release.

LipeJJ said:

I know, that's why I still consider it to be bold, just not super bold anymore.

Exactly. The game will still be selling well in the next 2 years, and then Nintendo can always turn it into a Nintendo Select, cutting the price to $30, do special bundles for the holidays, etc.

Well it will be a waiting game and most will be happy if they achieve it.

Nintendo games are leg games. You’re thinking of Sony where most fans buy primarily at the start, but Nintendo games have always been more of a full race in comparison, at least for the most part.

Not to mention, Zelda is well beyond its original userbase now and is selling to newcomers/new fans, and selling well at that. It’s already the best selling game in the series so what you said is irrelevant at this point anyway. That comes across as an excuse to believe BOTW will somehow stop selling as well all of a sudden, but again, it’s already the best selling in the series, has been out for over a year, and is still selling great without any deals or editions. There’s no reason to believe that’s going to change as of now. It’s clearly an evergreen title that is going to sell well until the system is dead. Once this game gets everything that Horizon has been graced with, it’s possible enough to reach 20 million.

Last edited by Roar_Of_War - on 02 May 2018

Jumpin on 02 May 2018
contestgamer said:
Unlikely, it's too much of a niche title to go mainstream, 12 mil at best

Wait... what? 12 million at full price is NOT mainstream?



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

S.Peelman on 03 May 2018

Your prediction has gotten more likely with last quarter's amazing sales numbers. Personally I thought the Switch version would have matched OoT's 7.6m at point, but it in fact topping that by a million was mindblowing. I still think it's a long shot, but wouldn't say it's impossible anymore. I think the Switch version at a minimum of 15m is a fairly safe bet now.



Miyamotoo on 03 May 2018
contestgamer said:
Unlikely, it's too much of a niche title to go mainstream, 12 mil at best

Is this serious post!? Zelda BotW with Wii U version is at 10m where just in last 3 months Switch version sold 1.8m, and that's without any price cut or bundle for game, so saying "12m at best" or "too much of niche tittle" (lol) sounds like bad joke, because only Switch version of game seems like look for at least 15m+ at end (curently is at 8.5m).



DonFerrari on 03 May 2018
Roar_Of_War said:
DonFerrari said:

I do realize all that and haven't said it's imposible, just a very big accomplishment.

Also it is easier for a new IP to have more late life sales than earlier because of word of mouth, than old IPs because those people already go for the release.

Well it will be a waiting game and most will be happy if they achieve it.

Nintendo games are leg games. You’re thinking of Sony where most fans buy primarily at the start, but Nintendo games have always been more of a full race in comparison, at least for the most part.

Not to mention, Zelda is well beyond its original userbase now and is selling to newcomers/new fans, and selling well at that. It’s already the best selling game in the series so what you said is irrelevant at this point anyway. That comes across as an excuse to believe BOTW will somehow stop selling as well all of a sudden, but again, it’s already the best selling in the series, has been out for over a year, and is still selling great without any deals or editions. There’s no reason to believe that’s going to change as of now. It’s clearly an evergreen title that is going to sell well until the system is dead. Once this game gets everything that Horizon has been graced with, it’s possible enough to reach 20 million.

1 - Not all Nintendo games are ever green.

2 - Zelda previous numbers are way below 20M to consider this as something more probable than not hitting 20M.

3 - And there is a very big difference between selling 10M in first year to 20M LT versus suddenly stop.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Oneeee-Chan!!! on 03 May 2018

Maybe yes.



contestgamer on 03 May 2018
DonFerrari said:
Roar_Of_War said:

Nintendo games are leg games. You’re thinking of Sony where most fans buy primarily at the start, but Nintendo games have always been more of a full race in comparison, at least for the most part.

Not to mention, Zelda is well beyond its original userbase now and is selling to newcomers/new fans, and selling well at that. It’s already the best selling game in the series so what you said is irrelevant at this point anyway. That comes across as an excuse to believe BOTW will somehow stop selling as well all of a sudden, but again, it’s already the best selling in the series, has been out for over a year, and is still selling great without any deals or editions. There’s no reason to believe that’s going to change as of now. It’s clearly an evergreen title that is going to sell well until the system is dead. Once this game gets everything that Horizon has been graced with, it’s possible enough to reach 20 million.

1 - Not all Nintendo games are ever green.

2 - Zelda previous numbers are way below 20M to consider this as something more probable than not hitting 20M.

3 - And there is a very big difference between selling 10M in first year to 20M LT versus suddenly stop.

I dont see it hitting 20. Maybe 16-17 max. That's still niche. Mainstream is minecraft, GTA, COD etc