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In progress NPD predicting tool

Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

I like the idea of searching for a better algorithm using more sets of data.  I think we should each come up with an algorithm based on these numbers and find one that we think will work, then the closest one to the results can be tested going forward to see how it predicts.  I'll try to come up with one that I think will be closer to the result.  Will update when I do.



zygote said:

I like the idea of searching for a better algorithm using more sets of data.  I think we should each come up with an algorithm based on these numbers and find one that we think will work, then the closest one to the results can be tested going forward to see how it predicts.  I'll try to come up with one that I think will be closer to the result.  Will update when I do.

That's the spirit ;)

I will wait for march NPD results before I start twisting the data but I like your idea.



Symbios63 said:
zygote said:

I like the idea of searching for a better algorithm using more sets of data.  I think we should each come up with an algorithm based on these numbers and find one that we think will work, then the closest one to the results can be tested going forward to see how it predicts.  I'll try to come up with one that I think will be closer to the result.  Will update when I do.

That's the spirit ;)

I will wait for march NPD results before I start twisting the data but I like your idea.

The point values are probably as good of an approximation as any, but I think the retailers need a weight based on average revenue generated for gaming.  I would imagine that Amazon and Walmart count a lot more than Best Buy for instance.  Gamestop may be pretty high on the list as well.  I think Target would be the least impacting.  This might clarify more on the Xbox/Switch ordering.



zygote said:
Symbios63 said:

That's the spirit ;)

I will wait for march NPD results before I start twisting the data but I like your idea.

The point values are probably as good of an approximation as any, but I think the retailers need a weight based on average revenue generated for gaming.  I would imagine that Amazon and Walmart count a lot more than Best Buy for instance.  Gamestop may be pretty high on the list as well.  I think Target would be the least impacting.  This might clarify more on the Xbox/Switch ordering.

Oh, I totally agree, and that is the plan, I am just saying I will wait for first NPD data before trying to "weight" retailers. And when the time comes, I'll be happy to have suggestions.

You can totally start trying to adjust the formula right away though :)



quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:
XBO ahead of PS4 in total points, is it the Sea of Thieves effect?? Also, Fortnite is HUGE right now, I wonder if that's pushing console sales as well for PS and XB...

xbox got a price cut again 249.99$

Microsoft has been really aggressive with their pricing, I wonder if they're taking losses becauee of it. 



Symbios63 said:
zygote said:

The point values are probably as good of an approximation as any, but I think the retailers need a weight based on average revenue generated for gaming.  I would imagine that Amazon and Walmart count a lot more than Best Buy for instance.  Gamestop may be pretty high on the list as well.  I think Target would be the least impacting.  This might clarify more on the Xbox/Switch ordering.

Oh, I totally agree, and that is the plan, I am just saying I will wait for first NPD data before trying to "weight" retailers. And when the time comes, I'll be happy to have suggestions.

You can totally start trying to adjust the formula right away though :)

NS - 155(.30) + 148(.30) + 0(.20) + 157(.10) + 191(.10) = 125.7
PS4 - 127(.30) + 262(.30) + 266(.20) + 257(.10) + 148(.10) = 157.2
XBO - 29(.30) + 216(.30) + 48(.20) + 156(.10) + 212(.10) = 110.3
SNES - 18(.30) + 79(.30) + 0(.20) + 0(.10) + 97(.10) = 38.8
3DS - 0(.30) + 232(.30) + 0(.20) + 74(.10) + 81(.10) = 85.1

Here is a quick approximation without looking up figures and using your point totals.  I weighted Walmart and Amazon the same, Gamestop next, then Target and Best Buy the same.

So order would be PS4, NS, XBO, 3DS, SNES

However a worrying thing is the 0 slots.  I highly doubt that NS sold 0 at Gamestop which at .2 weight would be a decent jump.  Both XBO and PS4 both have numbers for all the stores.  Also SNES and 3DS both have 0s and I'm sure 3DS has sold something on Amazon and Gamestop which would definitely affect numbers.

Even with accurate weights, we would need to account for these 0s somehow.  If we take those in consideration, it should get us close to what we would expect and have seen from NPD so far this year with Switch a little behind PS4 numbers, XBO a definite 3rd, 3DS pushing behind XBO, and SNES last.

**Disclaimer: Point values do not possess any inherent value of their own, but only server as a comparison conversion figure to give an idea on position.  Finding approximate numbers sold would require more detailed data, such as exact revenue value of the specific list (gaming products) for each store and approximate unit count differences between the #1 and #100 items on each of the respective lists.

Last edited by zygote - on 25 March 2018

24 hours from last update :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (+2) - 299.00$ - In stock
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (+5) - 299.00$ - In stock
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 27 (+1) - 299.00$ - In stock
4 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 41 (+2) - Third Party Sellers Only
5 (N) - XBox One S 1 Tb Sea of Thieves - 49 (N) - 249.00$ - In stock
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 83 (-1) - 399.00$ - In Stock
7 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 91 (-6) - 484.99$ (-6.96) - In Stock
8 (-3) - XBox One S 500Gb - 97 (-24) - 249.99$ - In stock

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-1) - XBox One S 500Gb Hotwheels - 87 (-1) - 242.00$ - In stock

PS4 : 74 + 18 = 92 points (-) ; XBO : 52 + 10 +4 = 66 points (+8) ; NS : 82 + 76 = 158 points (+7) ; Snes C : 60 points (+2)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+1) - 299.00$ - In Stock
2 (+5) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 5 (+33) - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 12 (-5) - 499.99$ - In Stock
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 15 (-) - 299.00$ - In Stock
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 16 (+13) - 399.00$ - In Stock
6 (+5) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 22 (+63) - 249.99$ (-50.00) - In Stock
7 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 32 (+31) - 249.99$ (-50.00) - In Stock
8 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb Star Wars - 43 (-9) - 399.00$ - In Stock
9 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 64 (-17) - 79.99$ - Out of Stock
10 (R) - New 3DS XL Galaxy Style - 81 (R) - 199.99$ (+25.00) - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 24 (-16) - 399.99$ - Preorder
8 (-2) - XBox One S 1 Tb Starter Bundle - 39 (-11) - 299.99$ - In Stock

PS4 : 96 + 85 + 58 = 239 points (+37) ; XBO : 89 + 79 + 69 = 237 points (+27) ; NS : 98 + 86 = 184 points (+1) ; 3DS : 20 points (+20) ; SnesC : 37 points (-17) ; PS4 (April) : 0 points (-77)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 10 (+7) - 399.99$ - Preorder
2 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 66 (+27) - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 92 (-2) - 399.99$ - In Stock
4 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 99 (-) - 499.99$ - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

1 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 1 (+1) - 79.99$ - Out of Stock

PS4 : 35 + 9 = 44 points (+25) ; XBO : 2 points (-) ; SnesC : 0 points (-100) ; PS4 (April) : 91 points (+7)


- Walmart :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (-) - 299.00$ - In Stock
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 16 (-) - Price in Cart - In Stock
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 21 (+1) - 299.99$ - In Stock
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (-1) - 299.00$ - In Stock
5 (+1) - XBox One S 500Gb - 30 (+5) - 248.99$ - Third Party Seller
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 500Gb Black - 31 (+3) - 269.00$ - In Stock
7 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 32 (+4) - 499.99$ - In Stock
8 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 33 (+5) - 399.00$ - In Stock
9 (+1) - XBox One S 500Gb Hotwheels/Forza Bundle - 34 (+5) - 229.00$ - In Stock
10 (+1) - Nintendo 2DS Mario Kart 7 - 44 (+3) - 79.95$ - In Stock
11 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 55 (+8) - 399.96$ - Preorder
12 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Rocket League - 57 (+4) - 299.00$ - In Stock
13 (+1) - Super Nes Classic - 59 (+6) - Third Party Seller

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 37 (-1) - 299.99$ - In Stock

PS4 : 80 + 70 + 68 = 218 points (-55) ; XBO : 85 + 71 + 69 + 67 + 44 = 336 points (+18) ; NS : 89 + 76 = 165 points (-1) ; Snes C : 42 points (+6) ; 3DS : 57 points (+3) ; PS4 (April) : 46 points (+8)


Target :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-)
2 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 7 (-)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (-)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 14 (-)
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 32 (+2)
6 (-1) - Xbox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 33 (-1)
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 40 (-1)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 53 (-1)
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 55 (+2)
10 (-) - Nintendo 2DS Mario Kart 7 - 71 (-3)
11 (-) - New Nintendo 2DS XL Black & Turquoise - 85 (-5)
12 (-) - Nintendo 2DS New Super Mario Bros 2 - 90 (-7)

PS4 : 87 + 48 + 46 = 181 points (+1) ; XBO : 69 + 68 + 61 = 198 points (-) ; NS : 98 + 93 = 191 points (-) ; Snes C : 94 points (-) ; 3DS : 30 + 16 + 11 = 57 points (-15)


Overall :

PS4 : 774 points (+8)
XBO : 839 points (+53)
NS : 698 points (+7)
3DS : 134 points (+8)
Snes C : 233 points (-109)

PS4 (April) : 137 (-62)

Last edited by Symbios63 - on 26 March 2018

zygote said:
Symbios63 said:

Oh, I totally agree, and that is the plan, I am just saying I will wait for first NPD data before trying to "weight" retailers. And when the time comes, I'll be happy to have suggestions.

You can totally start trying to adjust the formula right away though :)

NS - 155(.30) + 148(.30) + 0(.20) + 157(.10) + 191(.10) = 125.7
PS4 - 127(.30) + 262(.30) + 266(.20) + 257(.10) + 148(.10) = 157.2
XBO - 29(.30) + 216(.30) + 48(.20) + 156(.10) + 212(.10) = 110.3
SNES - 18(.30) + 79(.30) + 0(.20) + 0(.10) + 97(.10) = 38.8
3DS - 0(.30) + 232(.30) + 0(.20) + 74(.10) + 81(.10) = 85.1

Here is a quick approximation without looking up figures and using your point totals.  I weighted Walmart and Amazon the same, Gamestop next, then Target and Best Buy the same.

So order would be PS4, NS, XBO, 3DS, SNES

However a worrying thing is the 0 slots.  I highly doubt that NS sold 0 at Gamestop which at .2 weight would be a decent jump.  Both XBO and PS4 both have numbers for all the stores.  Also SNES and 3DS both have 0s and I'm sure 3DS has sold something on Amazon and Gamestop which would definitely affect numbers.

Even with accurate weights, we would need to account for these 0s somehow.  If we take those in consideration, it should get us close to what we would expect and have seen from NPD so far this year with Switch a little behind PS4 numbers, XBO a definite 3rd, 3DS pushing behind XBO, and SNES last.

**Disclaimer: Point values do not possess any inherent value of their own, but only server as a comparison conversion figure to give an idea on position.  Finding approximate numbers sold would require more detailed data, such as exact revenue value of the specific list (gaming products) for each store and approximate unit count differences between the #1 and #100 items on each of the respective lists.

Good job, 

About Gamestop list, I am considering scanning top 200 instead of 100, in order to have more systems listed (there are a lot of cheap figurines in that list which might explain the differences with the other lists).

A system ranked 20 would get 91 points as if it was ranked 10. A system ranked 170 would get 16 points as if it was 85...

That would not totally solve the zeros problem but it would make gamestop list closer to the others at least...

What do you think ?

- Gamestop old system : 

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 10 (+7) - 399.99$ - Preorder
2 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 66 (+27) - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 92 (-2) - 399.99$ - In Stock
4 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 99 (-) - 499.99$ - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

1 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 1 (+1) - 79.99$ - Out of Stock

PS4 : 35 + 9 = 44 points (+25) ; XBO : 2 points (-) ; SnesC : 0 points (-100) ; PS4 (April) : 91 points (+7)


- Gamestop new system : 

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 10 (+7) - 399.99$ - Preorder
2 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 66 (+27) - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 92 (-2) - 399.99$ - In Stock
4 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 99 (-) - 499.99$ - In Stock
5 - Nintendo Switch Neon - 132 - 299.99$ - In Stock
6 - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 153 - 359.99$ - In Stock
7 - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Bundle - 166 - 359.99$ - In Stock
8 - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 176 - 399.99$ - In Stock

Out of Top 200 :

1 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 1 (+1) - 79.99$ - Out of Stock

PS4 : 68 + 55 + 13 = 136 points   ;   XBO : 52 points   ;   SnesC : 0 points   ;   PS4 (April) : 96 points   ;   NS :  35 + 24 + 18 = 77 points

Last edited by Symbios63 - on 26 March 2018

NS - 155(.30) + 148(.30) + 77(.20) + 157(.10) + 191(.10) = 141.1
PS4 - 127(.30) + 262(.30) + 266(.20) + 257(.10) + 148(.10) = 157.2
XBO - 29(.30) + 216(.30) + 52(.20) + 156(.10) + 212(.10) = 120.7
SNES - 18(.30) + 79(.30) + 0(.20) + 0(.10) + 97(.10) = 38.8
3DS - 0(.30) + 232(.30) + 0(.20) + 74(.10) + 81(.10) = 85.1

I just adjusted the NS and XBO Gamestop numbers in the simple weighted algorithm I made. Not sure what the PS4(April) is. But this proportion looks a lot better. Swith close to PS4 sales, but PS4 ahead. According to these numbers though if there still are not 3DS rankings in the top 200 at Gamestop, it looks like 3DS numbers might finally be dropping sales this year.

Last edited by zygote - on 26 March 2018

23 hours from last update :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 17 (+2) - 299.00$ - In stock
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 26 (-1) - 299.00$ - In stock
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 27 (-) - 299.00$ - In stock
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1 Tb Sea of Thieves - 42 (+7) - 249.00$ - In stock
5 (-1) - Super Nes Classic - 56 (-15) - Third Party Sellers Only
6 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 80 (R) - 249.00$ - In stock
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 83 (-) - 399.00$ - In Stock
8 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 87 (+4) - 498.00$ - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-3) - XBox One S 500Gb - 97 (-24) - 249.99$ - In stock

PS4 : 74 + 18 = 92 points (-) ; XBO : 59 + 21 +14 = 94 points (+28) ; NS : 84 + 75 = 159 points (+1) ; Snes C : 45 points (-15)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (+1) - 299.00$ - In Stock
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (+2) - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 10 (+12) - 249.99$ (-50.00) - In Stock
4 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 12 (-) - 499.99$ - In Stock
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 14 (+2) - 399.00$ - In Stock
6 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 16 (-1) - 299.00$ - In Stock
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 17 (+15) - 249.99$ (-50.00) - In Stock
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb Star Wars - 72 (-29) - 399.00$ - In Stock
9 (R) - XBox One S 1 Tb Starter Bundle - 74 (R) - 299.99$ - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

9 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 64 (-17) - 79.99$ - Out of Stock
10 (R) - New 3DS XL Galaxy Style - 81 (R) - 199.99$ (+25.00) - In Stock

PS4 : 98 + 87 + 29 = 214 points (-25) ; XBO : 91 + 89 + 84 + 27 = 291 points (+54) ; NS : 99 + 85 = 184 points (-) ; 3DS : 0 points (-20) ; SnesC : 0 points (-37)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 12 (-2) - 399.99$ - Preorder
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 54 (+12) - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 82 (+10) - 399.99$ - In Stock
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 85 (+14) - 499.99$ - In Stock
5 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 97 (R) - 299.00$ - In Stock
6 - XBox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 140 - 229.99$ - In Stock
7 - Nintendo NEW 3DS XL - Samus Edition - 154 - 174.99$ - In Stock
8 - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 200 - 359.99$ - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

-

Old Syst : PS4 : 47 + 19 = 66 points (+22) ; XBO : 16 points (+14) ; PS4 (April) : 89 points (-2) ; NS : 4 points (+4)
New Syst : PS4 : 74 +60 = 134 points ; XBO : 58 + 31 = 89 points ; NS : 53 + 1 = 54 points ; 3DS : 24 points ; PS4 (April) : 95 points


- Walmart :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (+5) - 299.00$ - In Stock
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 16 (+5) - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 17 (-1) - 294.75$ - In Stock
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 24 (+1) - 299.00$ - In Stock
5 (-) - XBox One S 500Gb - 29 (+1) - 248.99$ - Third Party Seller
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 500Gb Black - 30 (+1) - 269.00$ - In Stock
7 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 31 (+1) - 499.99$ - In Stock
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 32 (+1) - 399.00$ - In Stock
9 (-) - XBox One S 500Gb Hotwheels/Forza Bundle - 33 (+1) - 229.00$ - In Stock
10 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 37 (R) - 249.00$ - In Stock
11 (-1) - Nintendo 2DS Mario Kart 7 - 43 (+1) - 79.95$ - In Stock
12 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 55 (-) - 399.96$ - Preorder
13 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Rocket League - 57 (-) - 299.00$ - In Stock
14 (-1) - Super Nes Classic - 59 (-) - Third Party Seller

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 85 + 71 + 69 = 225 points (+7) ; XBO : 84 + 72 + 70 + 68 + 64 +44 = 402 points (+66) ; NS : 94 + 77 = 171 points (+6) ; Snes C : 42 points (-) ; 3DS : 58 points (+1) ; PS4 (April) : 46 points (-)


Target :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-)
2 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 7 (-)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 9 (-1)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 15 (-1)
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 37 (-5)
6 (-) - Xbox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 39 (-6)
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 42 (-2)
8 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 52 (+3)
9 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 55 (-2)
10 (-) - Nintendo 2DS Mario Kart 7 - 75 (-4)
11 (-) - New Nintendo 2DS XL Black & Turquoise - 94 (-9)

Out of Top 100 :

12 (-) - Nintendo 2DS New Super Mario Bros 2 - 90 (-7)

PS4 : 86 + 49 + 46 = 181 points (-) ; XBO : 64 + 62 + 59 = 185 points (-13) ; NS : 98 + 92 = 190 points (-1) ; Snes C : 94 points (-) ; 3DS : 26 + 7 = 33 points (-24)


Overall (Old System):

1 - XBO : 988 points (+149)
2 - PS4 : 778 points (+4)
3 - NS : 708 points (+10)
4 - Snes C : 181 points (-52)
5 - 3DS : 91 points (-43)

PS4 (April) : 135 (-2)

Overall (New Gamestop System):

1 - XBO : 1061 points
2 - PS4 : 846 points
3 - NS : 758 points
4 - Snes C : 181 points
5 - 3DS : 115 points

PS4 (April) : 141

I'll go with the new system only from now on...