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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

StarDoor on 16 July 2018

Note: VGChartz sales are from NA, rather than USA, as NA figures are easier to obtain at this point.

  VGChartz weekly sales NPD Tool weekly points Sales per point
  PS4 XBO NS PS4 XBO NS PS4 XBO NS
May 12, 2018 77,521 36,485 53,587 3867.8 1137.2 2967.6 20.0 32.1 18.1
May 19, 2018 69,660 41,426 54,570 3646.4 2200.0 2932.8 19.1 18.8 18.6
May 26, 2018 67,926 43,013 56,300 3467.4 1889.0 2506.0 19.6 22.8 22.5
Jun 2, 2018 63,202 42,414 46,679 3420.4 973.0 2403.6 18.5 43.6 19.4
Jun 9, 2018 67,418 48,299 49,407 3821.4 1076.6 2922.0 17.6 44.9 16.9
Jun 16, 2018 71,117 57,507 54,222 3329.2 2073.8 2096.4 21.4 27.7 25.9
Jun 23, 2018 71,556 56,808 61,346 3225.8 2647.8 2800.2 22.2 21.5 21.9
Jun 30, 2018 62,031 44,534 48,464 2937.0 1445.8 3224.0 21.1 30.8 15.0
Jul 7, 2018       1995.8 1330.8 2873.6      
Jul 14, 2018       1287.4 830.2 2793.4      

 

  VGChartz ratios NPD Tool ratios Difference  
  XBO/PS4 NS/PS4 XBO/PS4 NS/PS4 XBO/PS4 NS/PS4
May 12, 2018 0.47 0.69 0.29 0.77 0.18 -0.08
May 19, 2018 0.59 0.78 0.60 0.80 -0.01 -0.02
May 26, 2018 0.63 0.83 0.54 0.72 0.09 0.11
Jun 2, 2018 0.67 0.74 0.28 0.70 0.39 0.04
Jun 9, 2018 0.72 0.73 0.28 0.76 0.43 -0.03
Jun 16, 2018 0.81 0.76 0.62 0.63 0.19 0.13
Jun 23, 2018 0.79 0.86 0.82 0.87 -0.03 -0.01
Jun 30, 2018 0.72 0.78 0.49 1.10 0.23 -0.32
Jul 7, 2018     0.67 1.44    
Jul 14, 2018     0.64 2.17    
Last edited by StarDoor - on 16 July 2018

Bofferbrauer2 on 16 July 2018
StarDoor said:

Note: VGChartz sales are from NA, rather than USA, as NA figures are easier to obtain at this point.

  VGChartz weekly sales NPD Tool weekly points Sales per point
  PS4 XBO NS PS4 XBO NS PS4 XBO NS
May 12, 2018 77,521 36,485 53,587 3867.8 1137.2 2967.6 20.0 32.1 18.1
May 19, 2018 69,660 41,426 54,570 3646.4 2200.0 2932.8 19.1 18.8 18.6
May 26, 2018 67,926 43,013 56,300 3467.4 1889.0 2506.0 19.6 22.8 22.5
Jun 2, 2018 63,202 42,414 46,679 3420.4 973.0 2403.6 18.5 43.6 19.4
Jun 9, 2018 67,418 48,299 49,407 3821.4 1076.6 2922.0 17.6 44.9 16.9
Jun 16, 2018 71,117 57,507 54,222 3329.2 2073.8 2096.4 21.4 27.7 25.9
Jun 23, 2018 71,556 56,808 61,346 3225.8 2647.8 2800.2 22.2 21.5 21.9
Jun 30, 2018 62,031 44,534 48,464 2937.0 1445.8 3224.0 21.1 30.8 15.0
Jul 7, 2018       1995.8 1330.8 2873.6      
Jul 14, 2018       1287.4 830.2 2793.4      

 

  VGChartz ratios NPD Tool ratios Difference  
  XBO/PS4 NS/PS4 XBO/PS4 NS/PS4 XBO/PS4 NS/PS4
May 12, 2018 0.47 0.69 0.29 0.77 0.18 -0.08
May 19, 2018 0.59 0.78 0.60 0.80 -0.01 -0.02
May 26, 2018 0.63 0.83 0.54 0.72 0.09 0.11
Jun 2, 2018 0.67 0.74 0.28 0.70 0.39 0.04
Jun 9, 2018 0.72 0.73 0.28 0.76 0.43 -0.03
Jun 16, 2018 0.81 0.76 0.62 0.63 0.19 0.13
Jun 23, 2018 0.79 0.86 0.82 0.87 -0.03 -0.01
Jun 30, 2018 0.72 0.78 0.49 1.10 0.23 -0.32
Jul 7, 2018     0.67 1.44    
Jul 14, 2018     0.64 2.17    

This will get interesting with the Quarterly report, seeing if there's a way to weight those points correctly into sales.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Megiddo on 16 July 2018

Yep, looks like VGchartz and the NPD predicting tool mostly agreed but the week ending June 30th has a huge degree of variance for NS/PS4 and the first two weeks of June have a big variance between PS4/XBO.



globalisateur on 16 July 2018

PS4 Pro unavailable online on all 3 big online retailers.



jason1637 on 16 July 2018
StarDoor said:

Note: VGChartz sales are from NA, rather than USA, as NA figures are easier to obtain at this point.

  VGChartz weekly sales NPD Tool weekly points Sales per point
  PS4 XBO NS PS4 XBO NS PS4 XBO NS
May 12, 2018 77,521 36,485 53,587 3867.8 1137.2 2967.6 20.0 32.1 18.1
May 19, 2018 69,660 41,426 54,570 3646.4 2200.0 2932.8 19.1 18.8 18.6
May 26, 2018 67,926 43,013 56,300 3467.4 1889.0 2506.0 19.6 22.8 22.5
Jun 2, 2018 63,202 42,414 46,679 3420.4 973.0 2403.6 18.5 43.6 19.4
Jun 9, 2018 67,418 48,299 49,407 3821.4 1076.6 2922.0 17.6 44.9 16.9
Jun 16, 2018 71,117 57,507 54,222 3329.2 2073.8 2096.4 21.4 27.7 25.9
Jun 23, 2018 71,556 56,808 61,346 3225.8 2647.8 2800.2 22.2 21.5 21.9
Jun 30, 2018 62,031 44,534 48,464 2937.0 1445.8 3224.0 21.1 30.8 15.0
Jul 7, 2018       1995.8 1330.8 2873.6      
Jul 14, 2018       1287.4 830.2 2793.4      

 

  VGChartz ratios NPD Tool ratios Difference  
  XBO/PS4 NS/PS4 XBO/PS4 NS/PS4 XBO/PS4 NS/PS4
May 12, 2018 0.47 0.69 0.29 0.77 0.18 -0.08
May 19, 2018 0.59 0.78 0.60 0.80 -0.01 -0.02
May 26, 2018 0.63 0.83 0.54 0.72 0.09 0.11
Jun 2, 2018 0.67 0.74 0.28 0.70 0.39 0.04
Jun 9, 2018 0.72 0.73 0.28 0.76 0.43 -0.03
Jun 16, 2018 0.81 0.76 0.62 0.63 0.19 0.13
Jun 23, 2018 0.79 0.86 0.82 0.87 -0.03 -0.01
Jun 30, 2018 0.72 0.78 0.49 1.10 0.23 -0.32
Jul 7, 2018     0.67 1.44    
Jul 14, 2018     0.64 2.17    

Interesting to see. The PS4 seems pretty consistent and the Switch also isn't that bad but the XBO is all over the place. The PS4/XBO ratios are also all over the place but the PS4/NS are pretty close.



Symbios63 on 17 July 2018

07/17/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 1 (+68) - 294.95$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+5) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (+14) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 85 (-8) - 484.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 210 + 16 = 226 points (+170) ; NS : 200 + 175 = 375 points (+92)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-2) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 7 (-1) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 23 (-1) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 29 (-6) - 499.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 41 (-7) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 points (+5) ; XBO : 106 + 94 + 70 = 270 points (-28) ; NS : 200 + 180 = 380 points (-15)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 42 (+3) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 63 (+5) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 161 (-11) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 88 points (+4) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS :110 + 20 = 130 points (-2)

Overall (Today) :

1 - NS : 506.0 points (+68.6) ; Month Average : 414.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 129.0 points (+5.0) ; Month Average : 166.6 points/day ; 0.40 (-0.02)
3 - XBO : 234.8 points (+130.4) ; Month Average : 126.8 points/day ; 0.31 (+0.03)



Bofferbrauer2 on 17 July 2018

PS4 on the last spot, who would have expected that to happen just a couple weeks ago?



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Shaqazooloo0 on 17 July 2018

Was the jump because of Prime Day or something?



TheWPCTraveler on 17 July 2018
Shaqazooloo0 said:
Was the jump because of Prime Day or something?

Most likely, yes. The jump was entirely caused by the 1TB XB1S landing at the top on the Amazon ranking.



 
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Megiddo on 17 July 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
PS4 on the last spot, who would have expected that to happen just a couple weeks ago?

As soon as I saw that it was down to 1-2 SKUs at Gamestop and Bestbuy, I did.