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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

The_Liquid_Laser on 27 February 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Hardware revision shares (Feb 27):

PS4:

Slim: (25+11)*0.8+(200+23)*02+64= 137.4
Pro: 46*08+195*0.2+26= 101.8

Slim/Pro ratio: 57.4/42.6%

Xbox One:

S: (36*0.8+ (125+100)*0.2+108+26)*1.3= 270.1
X: (3*0.8+(165)*0.2+0)*1.3= 46

S/X ratio: 85.4/14.6%

Slim+S 391.5/Pro+X 110.9

Total ratio: 77.9%/22.1%

The Pro did recover quite a bit, but the S-to-X ratio almost didn't change at all

What happened?  Seems like people are not going for the high end models anymore on these past couple of posts you did.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Bofferbrauer2 on 27 February 2019
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Hardware revision shares (Feb 27):

PS4:

Slim: (25+11)*0.8+(200+23)*02+64= 137.4
Pro: 46*08+195*0.2+26= 101.8

Slim/Pro ratio: 57.4/42.6%

Xbox One:

S: (36*0.8+ (125+100)*0.2+108+26)*1.3= 270.1
X: (3*0.8+(165)*0.2+0)*1.3= 46

S/X ratio: 85.4/14.6%

Slim+S 391.5/Pro+X 110.9

Total ratio: 77.9%/22.1%

The Pro did recover quite a bit, but the S-to-X ratio almost didn't change at all

What happened?  Seems like people are not going for the high end models anymore on these past couple of posts you did.

The X was discounted 100$ until 10 days ago, since then both the S and the X are 50$ off. I think what happened is that everybody who wanted the X bought the Fallout 76 bundle while supply lasted and now those who just want any XBO are buying the S since it's very cheap right now.

I hope next month we will have a couple weeks without any pricecuts so we can see how well X and S sell naturally without any outside pushes, as with those pricecuts it's hard to make out a clear trend.

On the Playstation side of things, the Pro is still pretty consistently selling over 30% of total PS4 sales every day, with many days even above 40%. That's quite a bit more than some people thought, who expected it more to be around 20%. If the PS4 were to sell about 5M units in the US this year, that would mean that over 1.5M of them are Pro.

Edit: updated the total ratio in the chart above, completely forgot to do that before

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 27 February 2019

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

The_Liquid_Laser on 27 February 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

What happened?  Seems like people are not going for the high end models anymore on these past couple of posts you did.

The X was discounted 100$ until 10 days ago, since then both the S and the X are 50$ off. I think what happened is that everybody who wanted the X bought the Fallout 76 bundle while supply lasted and now those who just want any XBO are buying the S since it's very cheap right now.

I hope next month we will have a couple weeks without any pricecuts so we can see how well X and S sell naturally without any outside pushes, as with those pricecuts it's hard to make out a clear trend.

On the Playstation side of things, the Pro is still pretty consistently selling over 30% of total PS4 sales every day, with many days even above 40%. That's quite a bit more than some people thought, who expected it more to be around 20%. If the PS4 were to sell about 5M units in the US this year, that would mean that over 1.5M of them are Pro.

Edit: updated the total ratio in the chart above, completely forgot to do that before

Thanks.  I now see why so many people wanted the XB1X.  I look forward to seeing how it does next month.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Symbios63 on 28 February 2019

02/28/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 8 (+4) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 32 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 36 (-8) - 298.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 49 (+6) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 60 (+5) - 233.00$
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 75 (+15) - TP
7 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 93 (+5) - 399.99$
8 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 95 (-19) - 319.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 54 + 26 + 6 = 88 points (+6) ; XBO : 41 + 8 = 49 points (+10) ; NS : 175 + 88 + 80 = 343 points (+4)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 4 (-) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 10 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (-) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 18 (-) - 249.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 26 (-) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 195 = 395 points (-) ; XBO : 165 + 125 + 100 = 390 points (-) ; NS : 205 + 170 + 155 = 530 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 12 (+3)
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 38 (+5)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 47 (+40)
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 87 (+62)
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 122 (+28)
6 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 137 (R)
7 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 150 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 104 + 40 = 144 points (+54) ; XBO : 120 + 64 + 26 = 210 point (+76) ; NS : 185 + 32 = 217 points (+42)

Overall :

1 - NS : 597.4 points (+45.2) ; Month Average : 504.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 425.4 points (+109.2) ; Month Average : 251.6 points/day ; 0.50 (+0.01)
3 - PS4 : 293.4 points (+58.8) ; Month Average : 236.9 points/day ; 0.47 (-)



Bofferbrauer2 on 28 February 2019

Hardware revision shares (Feb 28):

PS4:

Slim: (26+6)*0.8+(200+23)*02+104= 174.2
Pro: 54*08+195*0.2+40= 122.2

Slim/Pro ratio: 58.8/41.2%

Xbox One:

S: (41*0.8+ (125+100)*0.2+120+64)*1.3= 340.3
X: (8*0.8+(165)*0.2+26)*1.3= 85

S/X ratio: 80/20%

Slim+S 514.5/Pro+X 207.2

Total ratio: 71.3%/28.7%

Slight recovery for Pro and X, but only slight since the Slim and S grew almost as fast as them.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

zorg1000 on 01 March 2019
Mar1217 said:
Everybody goes up like crazy ... for how long ?

Until everyone finishes blowing through their tax refunds.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bofferbrauer2 on 02 March 2019
Mar1217 said:
zorg1000 said:

Until everyone finishes blowing through their tax refunds.

*When you live in Canada and you won't probably receive it before the end of March*

*sigh*

In Luxembourg we get ours during Summer or early Fall, but we also have until end of April to fill out our forms with all the data from the previous year. So normally it's either spent on a summer holiday trip or, if late, holiday season gifts



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Symbios63 on 02 March 2019

03/01/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 10 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 44 (-8) - 298.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 49 (-17) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 62 (-13) - 399.99$
5 (+3) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 79 (+16) - 319.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 81 (-21) - 233.00$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 89 (+4) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 75 (+15) - TP

PS4 : 39 + 22 = 61 points (-27) ; XBO : 20 + 12 = 32 points (-17) ; NS : 165 + 64 + 54 = 283 points (-60)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 4 (-2) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 5 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 10 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (-) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 17 (+1) - 249.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 33 (-7) - 249.99$
9 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield V - 85 (R) - 449.99$
10 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 - 95 (R) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 190 = 390 points (-5) ; XBO : 165 + 130 + 86 + 16 + 6 = 403 points (+13) ; NS : 195 + 170 + 155 = 520 points (-10)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 11 (+1)
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 28 (+10)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 29 (+18)
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 61 (+26)
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 122 (+15)
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 126 (-4)
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 134 (+16)
8 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 171 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 140 + 38 = 178 points (+34) ; XBO : 145 + 90 + 34 + 15 = 284 point (+74) ; NS : 185 + 40 = 225 points (+8)

Overall :

1 - NS : 555.4 points (-42.0) ; Month Average : 506.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 507.3 points (+81.9) ; Month Average : 261.1 points/day ; 0.52 (+0.02)
3 - PS4 : 304.8 points (+11.4) ; Month Average : 239.4 points/day ; 0.47 (-)

Next update will be the last one for February...

No tax refunds here in France, but we only pay what we have to...



Bofferbrauer2 on 02 March 2019

Hardware revision shares (March 1st):

PS4:

Slim: 22*0.8+(200+23)*02+140= 202.2
Pro: 39*08+190*0.2+38= 107.2

Slim/Pro ratio: 65.3/34.7%

Xbox One:

S: (20*0.8+ (130+86+6)*0.2+145+90+15)*1.3= 403.3
X: (12*0.8+(165+16)*0.2+34)*1.3= 103.7

S/X ratio: 79.5/20.5%

Slim+S 605.5/Pro+X 210.9

Total ratio: 74.2%/25.8%

S again sells about as much as the other ones combined. Maybe the Tax returns are too small to afford one of the upgrade consoles? At least they are consistently selling a lot less good compared to their base models right now.

Also Tax returns only happen in Luxembourg if you paid too much, which is rare unless the tax law just changed. But then like I said they pay you back in or after summer.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Symbios63 on 03 March 2019

03/02/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 11 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 45 (-1) - 298.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 51 (-2) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 61 (+1) - 399.99$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 78 (R) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 80 (+1) - 233.00$
7 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 92 (-13) - 319.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 89 (+4) - 399.99$

PS4 : 40 + 23 + 9 = 72 points (+11) ; XBO : 21 points (-11) ; NS : 160 + 54 + 50 = 264 points (-19)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 2 (+2) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 6 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (+2) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 10 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 11 (+1) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 15 (+2) - 249.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 44 (-11) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

9 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield V - 85 (R) - 449.99$
10 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 - 95 (R) - 249.99$

PS4 : 210 + 185 = 395 points (+5) ; XBO : 165 + 140 + 64 = 369 points (-34) ; NS : 205 + 180 + 160 = 545 points (+25)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 10 (+1)
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 22 (+7)
3 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 36 (-8)
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 54 (+7)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 100 (+22)
6 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee + Pokeball Charger - 123 (N)
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 132 (+2)
8 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 138 (-12)
9 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 144 (N)

Out of Top 100 :

8 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 171 (R)

PS4 : 160 + 32 = 192 points (+14) ; XBO : 125 + 98 + 35 = 258 point (-26) ; NS : 190 + 52 + 39 + 29 = 310 points (+85)

Overall :

1 - NS : 630.2 points (+74.8) ; Month Average : 510.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 453.2 points (-54.1) ; Month Average : 267.9 points/day ; 0.52 (-)
3 - PS4 : 328.6 points (+23.8) ; Month Average : 242.6 points/day ; 0.48 (+0.01)


Last February update. This one should be a confortable win for Switch. I would not bet on second place though...