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May 2017 NPD Thread! PS4 #1

Forums - Sales Discussion - May 2017 NPD Thread! PS4 #1

Barkley said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

You guys do realize the calculation would only compare the month of MAY right

Because, you know, this is a thread for the MAY NPD numbers. 

This line isn't about may, and if I'd directly quoted you this is the line I would have quoted:

VideoGameAccountant said:

I do think Sony is going to see a decline this year. The company is projecting fewer shipments, but I think it will be a bit worse than they think.


From Sony's most recent financial report: https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/fr/16q4_sonyspeech.pdf

"Three and half years have passed since the launch of PS4, and we expect annual unit sales in FY17 to decrease year-on year to 18 million units, but some major software titles are scheduled to be launched and we believe we are in the harvest phase of the platform."

Sony themselves have said that they expect a decline for unit sales. Now, in fairness, this is FY (which end March 31, 2018, for them), so there may be a difference there. Nevertheless, this also isn't surprising when you consider sales of a console tend to decline after its third year.  A decline is expected for Sony as it is for most systems.
The reason I'm expecting a larger decline is that Sony has competition now. A big reason the PS4 was successful is that Microsoft was very DRM/Kinect focused, which it's core audience rejected, and Nintendo made the Wii U, a device that had no real purpose and had the most jarring library. Now we have Switch which is a handheld console. The added functionality of handheld, I believe, will appeal more to the younger consumers who have been raised on mobile devices. Basically, do you think consumers would rather have a system they can take anywhere or a console that has great graphics? (there is also PC, but I don't think that will have as immediate effect). 
To clarify a bit, the customers I'm looking at are the ones that don't have a console. There are Pro sales. These will sell to previous PS4 owners, but I don't think those will have a major impact (Pro to standard is 1:4 or 1:5 IIRC). If you are someone who hasn't gotten a console yet, which one would you want more. My expectation is people will pick the one that can be played anywhere over the one with better graphics.
Why people are so bent out of shape on these comments is beyond me.
EDIT: This forum for some reason wants to merge all these paragraphs together. If it's difficult to read, I'm sorry


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VideoGameAccountant said:
Barkley said:

This line isn't about may, and if I'd directly quoted you this is the line I would have quoted:


From Sony's most recent financial report: https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/fr/16q4_sonyspeech.pdf

"Three and half years have passed since the launch of PS4, and we expect annual unit sales in FY17 to decrease year-on year to 18 million units, but some major software titles are scheduled to be launched and we believe we are in the harvest phase of the platform."

Sony themselves have said that they expect a decline for unit sales. Now, in fairness, this is FY (which end March 31, 2018, for them), so there may be a difference there. Nevertheless, this also isn't surprising when you consider sales of a console tend to decline after its third year.  A decline is expected for Sony as it is for most systems.
The reason I'm expecting a larger decline is that Sony has competition now. A big reason the PS4 was successful is that Microsoft was very DRM/Kinect focused, which it's core audience rejected, and Nintendo made the Wii U, a device that had no real purpose and had the most jarring library. Now we have Switch which is a handheld console. The added functionality of handheld, I believe, will appeal more to the younger consumers who have been raised on mobile devices. Basically, do you think consumers would rather have a system they can take anywhere or a console that has great graphics? (there is also PC, but I don't think that will have as immediate effect). 
To clarify a bit, the customers I'm looking at are the ones that don't have a console. There are Pro sales. These will sell to previous PS4 owners, but I don't think those will have a major impact (Pro to standard is 1:4 or 1:5 IIRC). If you are someone who hasn't gotten a console yet, which one would you want more. My expectation is people will pick the one that can be played anywhere over the one with better graphics.
Why people are so bent out of shape on these comments is beyond me.
EDIT: This forum for some reason wants to merge all these paragraphs together. If it's difficult to read, I'm sorry

I'm pretty sure consumers would rather have the system with the best library than a handheld. People simply don't carry their gaming systems like they used to. People just use their phone to waste time on the go.



Barkley said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

You guys do realize the calculation would only compare the month of MAY right

Because, you know, this is a thread for the MAY NPD numbers. 

This line isn't about may, and if I'd directly quoted you this is the line I would have quoted:

VideoGameAccountant said:

I do think Sony is going to see a decline this year. The company is projecting fewer shipments, but I think it will be a bit worse than they think.


And the thing is, the PS4 is still up YoY overall, and was down in May this year only because last May had Uncharted 4. May '16 was up over April by 18.6%, a rare occasion of May being up a substantial amount from the preceding April. May is almost always flat or slightly down from April unless something happens to boost sales in May, which isn't often.

VideoGameAccountant said:

XBox+PS4 is up vs XBox360+PS3 in US. That may be what you're thinking. Keep in mind the time period you'd be comparing would be 2008 or 2009 in the height of the Great Recession


Overall hardware sales in the U.S. were at their absolute peak in 2008-2009:


For all intents and purposes, the console market was recession-proof. Even if you focus on just PlayStation and Xbox, combined 360 & PS3 sales were experiencing continued growth through the recession.

Also, don't downplay the PS4 or Gen 8 in general. Combined PS4+XBO sales are doing just fine, and ought to be comparable to combined PS3+360 lifetime sales by the end of the generation.