Not doubting you but Persona 5 had a full month vs 3 days for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.
If the UK charts were anything to go by, then Persona wont do that well. Mario Kart will be the top spot and the rest will be, mostly, repeat games.
No we cant judge it by uk in this case. P5 shipped+digital was 1.5mil. Estimate of 550k of that is from Japan. That leaves 900k-950k for the west. It was noted that europe had a significant low shipment than that of the US. I wouldnt be surpised if Europe got only 250k of that while Americas got the rest.
US P5 will be over 300k+ I think it has a chance with digital to get close to 450k maybr 500k if lucky