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April 2017 NPD Thread! Switch #1 (280k), Mario Kart: 550k

Forums - Sales Discussion - April 2017 NPD Thread! Switch #1 (280k), Mario Kart: 550k

xl-klaudkil said:
thismeintiel said:

When the PS4 drops to $199, it will be BF this year.  That's what I'm most interested to see.  Though, I do think that if it remains $199, which it probably will since the PS4 is still selling for $249, even though that was supposed to just be temporary, it should remain relatively flat for most of the early part of the year.Iss

Is it 249 everywhere  or jusamazonn

I thought it was everywhere, but it seems it is only Walmart and Amazon selling it still for $249.  Target has it for $269.  And Best Buy and Gamestop is at the normal $299, though Best Buy does say Price Match Guarantee on it.  I think it's safe to say that Amazon and Walmart are making up the majority of PS4 sales in the US.



Teeqoz said:
thismeintiel said:

When the PS4 drops to $199, it will be BF this year.  That's what I'm most interested to see.  Though, I do think that if it remains $199, which it probably will since the PS4 is still selling for $249, even though that was supposed to just be temporary, it should remain relatively flat for most of the early part of the year.

My main point is, sales won't suddenly explode because the price is dropped below 200. It still has to fight against saturation. I don't mean that sales will drop very quickly, but I think the PS4 has already seen it's best holiday (november-december 2015, namely). Now it's about keeping sales relatively level and slowing the decline.

I don't know.  A $199 PS4 Slim and a possible $299 Pro could really drive sales this holiday season.  Not saying it will happen, but there is a chance at maybe matching 2015.



Insidb said:
Is that right? A 70% MoM drop for NS?

I get that March was a launch month, but it's STILL sold out here.

How sure can we be that NS isn't under-reported in April?

99% sure. NPD's retailer coverage is above 90%, so there's only a very small percentage that is estimated. In case Switch is undertracked by NPD, it wouldn't be by a significant amount, so such speculation is moot.

The reason why launch month was so much higher is that Switch production started in fall 2016, so the number of units that was made available in March far exceeded the amount of of one month's production.

A comparison with the PS4, another system that was supply constrained in the months following its launch, shows something similar. In the 1.5 months in 2013, a little over 4m units were sold. The following three months combined were ~3m.

Nintendo reported that 2.74m Switch units were shipped in March. Expect a similar amount for the three months of April to June, so the total should fall between 5-5.5m when Nintendo publishes their next financial results.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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Insidb said:
Is that right? A 70% MoM drop for NS?

I get that March was a launch month, but it's STILL sold out here.

How sure can we be that NS isn't under-reported in April?

seems like a pretty standard post launch drop



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RolStoppable said:

99% sure. NPD's retailer coverage is above 90%, so there's only a very small percentage that is estimated. In case Switch is undertracked by NPD, it wouldn't be by a significant amount, so such speculation is moot.

The reason why launch month was so much higher is that Switch production started in fall 2016, so the number of units that was made available in March far exceeded the amount of of one month's production.

A comparison with the PS4, another system that was supply constrained in the months following its launch, shows something similar. In the 1.5 months in 2013, a little over 4m units were sold. The following three months combined were ~3m.

Nintendo reported that 2.74m Switch units were shipped in March. Expect a similar amount for the three months of April to June, so the total should fall between 5-5.5m when Nintendo publishes their next financial results.

Jeebas, Ninty better ramp up, because it only seems (rarely) available in the EU.

Bottom line: if you're not in the UK or Italy, you're probably not getting a Switch for a while.



I've updated my charts with the estimates provided earlier for 2017 sales. Here's a couple:

I'll put up some more later.



RolStoppable said:
Insidb said:
Is that right? A 70% MoM drop for NS?

I get that March was a launch month, but it's STILL sold out here.

How sure can we be that NS isn't under-reported in April?

99% sure. NPD's retailer coverage is above 90%, so there's only a very small percentage that is estimated. In case Switch is undertracked by NPD, it wouldn't be by a significant amount, so such speculation is moot.

The reason why launch month was so much higher is that Switch production started in fall 2016, so the number of units that was made available in March far exceeded the amount of of one month's production.

A comparison with the PS4, another system that was supply constrained in the months following its launch, shows something similar. In the 1.5 months in 2013, a little over 4m units were sold. The following three months combined were ~3m.

Nintendo reported that 2.74m Switch units were shipped in March. Expect a similar amount for the three months of April to June, so the total should fall between 5-5.5m when Nintendo publishes their next financial results.

At the early days of VGChartz, 2007-2008, people like The Source used to say that NPD covers onle 55-60% of the market and estimates the rest. I don't know how much this change during the last ten years. 

 

I don't think Switch is undertracked though, or we will hear it from Nintendo otherwise. We never heard any company complain about the quality of the data before.



Here's some more charts. When I said I'd have them up "later" I didn't mean four days later, but I've been too preoccupied to update most of them until today.

After securing four straight wins from July through October last year, the XBO started trailing the PS4 again over the holidays, and the gap grew even faster after the holidays, the PS4's lead exceeding two million units for the first time in March.

 

Combined PS4 & XBO sales, which have now crossed the 35 million mark, are starting to close the gap with their more front-loaded Gen 6 counterparts. While the Xbox died a quick death once the 360 was released, the PS2 had strong legs, so that gap could start to widen again towards the end of the current generation. They're still far outpacing combined aligned PS3+360 sales, but the gap grew mostly in the 2014 & 2015 holidays and isn't growing much anymore, and will start to shrink next year.