I don't know if anyone really cares, but I'm going to go ahead and give some context to Nintendo Life Spans starting at the Nintendo Entertainment System.

A. Europe consistently had the shortest life cycle, though this is due to later releases that slowly got closer to the actual launch of the console

B. The time window to most often appear was 5-6 Years, with the Wii U being the only exception

C. The Wii, Nintendo's most highest selling home console had the longest lifespan, that is if we ignore the NES's long lifespan in Japan

D. The average number in days is about 2047, note I just did the 1983 launch to the Switch Launch and divided by 6 for 6 full lifecycles

Now I will do the Handhelds (I think I will count Gameboy Color as an upgrade just to make the numbers more even all around, and it does strike me as a large enough upgrade to get it's own generational leap for release date)

I have now gotten lazy, and my computer is acting up, so I will come back to this at sometime in the future to finish it

EDIT: Computer fixed and the chart is finished, its uneven just as I expected, honestly I thought the GBC came out a years or two before it actually did. Lets look at some trends

A. Only the GBC and GBA featured extraordinarily short lifecycles

B. The Gameboy to the surprise of nobody is the longest spanning handheld console

C. After the GBA it appears lifecycles have become a standard six years, though this is only accounting for the two most recent handhelds.

D. Recently handhelds have started to last for longer than their home console counterparts.

My takeaway: Switch will probably not be replaced till 2023, but no later than Holiday 2025

Thank you for doing all that.  It is very helpful.  I’ve come back to look at this a few times.

Personally, I can see Switch being on track to sell more than 140 million, but I don’t see 150 million being guaranteed.
I can see it falling just short of the DS on 154 million if they’re still shipping units during FY 2025, but I haven’t seen anything that convinces me it’s going to outsell the DS by selling over 154.9 million.

For instance, I’m expecting slightly worse sales for FY 2021 and FY 2022, then expecting FY 2023 to be lower than FY 2018 sales.  I can’t see Switch still being a hot item during FY 2023, but it can definitely still outsell the Wii U lifetime sales during that year.

Taking into account the awesome game lineup for 2022 (Zelda BOTW2, Bayonetta 3, Splatoon 3, Kyrby, Pokemon Arceus and  other games), do you think it's possible to see yearly numbers like the ones from 2020/21??

Possibly 103m by the end of the holidays which moves it into the top 5 platforms of all time, by the time the FY ends if the intended 24m shipment is met that would put the platform at around 109m,

Assuming they meet their revised 24m forecast, that would put Switch LTD shipments at 108.59 million by the end of March 2022.

The semiconductor shortages + the overwhelming demand for the OLED model ensures that supply will still be a factor next year. Whatever they can't make and ship this fiscal year, they will do so in the next, which works out in FY 22's favor.

I still think next fiscal year will be down from this one as next year will be when the Switch starts to show its age. Regardless, I still expect next fiscal year to be another 20m+ year. Around the same levels as 2019. And then a gradual decline after that leading up to the launch of the next system. Then, a sharp decline after that (This is assuming their next system is backwards compatible and launches at $300/$350) and then eventual cease of production. So something along the lines of this:

FY 21: 24 million (LTD: 108.59 million)
FY 22: 20-22 million (LTD: 128.59 - 130.59 million) - Strong 2022 software lineup + shortages resolved and increased supply
FY 23: 16-19 million (LTD: 144.59 - 149.59 million) - Price cuts across all models + Switch 2 launch at the end of the fiscal year (March 2024)
FY 24: 9-10 million (LTD: 153.59 - 159.59 million)
FY 25: 3-5 million (LTD: 156.59 - 164.59 million)
FY 26+: 1-2 million (LTD: 157.59 - 166.59 million)

I think there's actually a chance that the Switch ends up in between the DS and PS2.
If it ends up at roughly 109mil at the end of this fiscal year and then sells as follows:
FY22 - 21mil
FY23 - 15mil
FY24 - 8mil (successor releases)
FY25 - 3mil
That would be 156mil in the end.

@PAOerfulone, I think you're being a bit to generous with the last few years. Unless the successor is not backwards compatible.

I think my predictions I made a while ago are a bit less generous for FY 2023 than PAO’s.
They’re slightly under Kakadu’s for 2023 with very slightly more drop off each year after.
I still see potential for 153 million lifetime, but I think these shortages have killed my hopes of Switch surpassing the DS for hardware sales.

I’m also still predicting a Switch successor for September-November 2024.
I feel like they’re still in touch with their hardware partners like Nvidia to investigate what can be done with the 5nm node as they confirm their concept. They should be done with that very soon, but then it’s probably the second half of 2022 by the time they get their early dev kits and prototypes. With key partners getting dev kits a couple of months later in late 2022.

I feel like less than two years is not enough time to develop enough quality games for a new system and Nintendo doesn’t like to rush and probably doesn’t want a weak first few months of 3rd party offerings.

I think because of the shortages it's more likely than before that the Switch sells over 20mil next year.
But it might as well go differently.
For example, worst case scenario:
FY21 - 23mil
FY22 - 18mil
FY23 - 10mil
FY24 - 5mil
FY25 - 1mil
This scenario asumes Nintendo can't quite hit their target for this FY and also ships below 20mil next FY and then dies rather quickly. I don't see the successor releasing before March 2024, so this scenario is rather pessimistic and asumes a weak lineup in 2023 as well as quick saturation and no new models. And yet it's still above 140mil.

Best case scenario:
FY21 - 25mil
FY22 - 23mil
FY23 - 18mil
FY24 - 12mil
FY25 - 5mil
FY26 - 2mil
Granted if the successor releases in March 2024, 12mil won't make any sense. Also this scenario asumes that Nintendo still manages to ship 25mil this FY.

The only way the Switch can sell below 140mil is if the successor actually does release in 2023, which I don't see as realistic. And it can only realistically sell over 170mil if it's successor is not backwards compatible, which leads to continued high sales in 2024 or if it releases in 2025, which could be to late. The successor should ideally release when the momentum if the Switch isn't completely dead.

I'm still betting on a Switch successor launching (with full BC) in Holiday 2024.

FY 2021: close to 110 million LT
FY 2022: close to 132 million LT
FY 2023: close to 150 million LT
FY 2024: close to 157 million LT
FY 2025: 159 million LT (and then probably cough up another 1 million throughout the rest of 2026).

Based on my predictions, the Switch 2 would launch when Switch sales have reached around 155 million.

Really depends on what kind of support Switch gets in 2023, as well as what other kind of models it potentially gets.