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April 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware and software up!

Forums - Sales Discussion - April 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware and software up!

TheBlackNaruto said:
Putting just the tip in -_-

LOL!  There's a certain text!



Ryng_Tolu said:

Predictions

[PS4] 185,000
[XB1] 150,000
[3DS] 100,000
[WIU] 35,000
[PSV] 7,000

1) Dark Souls III (PS4; XBO; PC)
2) Tom Clancy's: The Division (PS4; XBO; PC)
3) Ratchet & Clank (PS4)
4) Quantum Break (XBO)
5) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3; PC)
6) MLB 16: The Show (PS4; PS3)
7) UFC 2 (PS4, XBO)
8) Far Cry: Primal (PS4; XBO; PC)
9) Minecraft (360; XBO; PS4; PS3; PC)
10) Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO; PS4; 360; PS3; PC)

• Dark Souls III will sell over 500,000. 70% on PS4, 30% on XBO.
• Ratchet & Clank will sell almost 250,000.
• Quantum Break will sell over 200,000. (including bundle)
• Bravely Second will sell over 100,000.
• Star Fox 0 will sell almost 80,000.

Ratchet & Clank will be > The Division, and I also think you have DS3 and R&C totals too low. DS3 has shipped 3 million remember?



Teeqoz said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Predictions

[PS4] 185,000
[XB1] 150,000
[3DS] 100,000
[WIU] 35,000
[PSV] 7,000

1) Dark Souls III (PS4; XBO; PC)
2) Tom Clancy's: The Division (PS4; XBO; PC)
3) Ratchet & Clank (PS4)
4) Quantum Break (XBO)
5) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3; PC)
6) MLB 16: The Show (PS4; PS3)
7) UFC 2 (PS4, XBO)
8) Far Cry: Primal (PS4; XBO; PC)
9) Minecraft (360; XBO; PS4; PS3; PC)
10) Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO; PS4; 360; PS3; PC)

• Dark Souls III will sell over 500,000. 70% on PS4, 30% on XBO.
• Ratchet & Clank will sell almost 250,000.
• Quantum Break will sell over 200,000. (including bundle)
• Bravely Second will sell over 100,000.
• Star Fox 0 will sell almost 80,000.

Ratchet & Clank will be > The Division, and I also think you have DS3 and R&C totals too low. DS3 has shipped 3 million remember?

My estimate, which of course can't be 100% correct but this is what i see.

Dark Souls is HUGE on PC, definitive the bigger platform for Dark Souls.

Dark souls is at 1.5 million in Nord America as for 10 May, right? It sold about 850K on Steam which mean is definitively >1 million on PC worldwide, most likely even over 1.2 million, and i can see about 40% in NA or so, which could mean 500k of those 1.5 million. This leave 1 million shipped on PS4/XBO.

Let's say that, about 80% of those shipments were sold, which seem likely... this is about 800k.

Don't forget that even on console it's digital sales were immense, look at Japan, and North America is most likely even bigger.

It's easy at least >20% digital, i'll go with 25% or more. So, this leave under <600K at retail on PS4 and XBO.

As well, remember we talk about North America, not USA... USA is usually 90% of NA, so i think it's <540K in USA.

In conclusion: i see between 500-550k for Dark Souls III first month at retail on PS4/XBO, more close to 500K than 550K for the reason you saw above.

 

P.S

I made i typo with ReC, i wanna say >250k, not <250k... still, even if will sell amazing well and break the 300K mark, i think The Division will be 350,000 this NPD, so it won't beat it. Imo, of course.



CosmicSex said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
Putting just the tip in -_-

LOL!  There's a certain text!

All this tagging and tapping I felt there was nothing more left for me to do lol



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

For the 4th month in a row I'm predicting a ps4 win. Have to earn my visionary tag you know



Ryng_Tolu said:
Teeqoz said:

Ratchet & Clank will be > The Division, and I also think you have DS3 and R&C totals too low. DS3 has shipped 3 million remember?

My estimate, which of course can't be 100% correct but this is what i see.

Dark Souls is HUGE on PC, definitive the bigger platform for Dark Souls.

Dark souls is at 1.5 million in Nord America as for 10 May, right? It sold about 850K on Steam which mean is definitively >1 million on PC worldwide, most likely even over 1.2 million, and i can see about 40% in NA or so, which could mean 500k of those 1.5 million. This leave 1 million shipped on PS4/XBO.

PS4 is still the definitive platform for Dark Souls III.  Why would it have sold more than 850k on PC worldwide? It's not like many PC copies are shipped to retailers so the difference is minimal here. So it's definitely below 1m on PC.



Boutros said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

My estimate, which of course can't be 100% correct but this is what i see.

Dark Souls is HUGE on PC, definitive the bigger platform for Dark Souls.

Dark souls is at 1.5 million in Nord America as for 10 May, right? It sold about 850K on Steam which mean is definitively >1 million on PC worldwide, most likely even over 1.2 million, and i can see about 40% in NA or so, which could mean 500k of those 1.5 million. This leave 1 million shipped on PS4/XBO.

PS4 is still the definitive platform for Dark Souls III.  Why would it have sold more than 850k on PC worldwide? It's not like many PC copies are shipped to retailers so the difference is minimal here. So it's definitely below 1m on PC.

850k on STEAM, Not on PC.

The Dark Souls series before Dark Souls 3 sold 9 million WW, and of those 9 million, 5 million were on PC, the rest on 360 and PS3.

After BloodBorne released, the Souls series is becomed stronger on PlayStation, but PC is still the bigger platform most likely.



Swordmasterman said:
They are giving the NPD number again ? i thought that since January 2016 they stopped with the Exact Data.

We were getting numbers from an insider at GAF for the last several months of last year, but he got banned. We've still been getting numbers from others, though.



Ryng_Tolu said:
Boutros said:

PS4 is still the definitive platform for Dark Souls III.  Why would it have sold more than 850k on PC worldwide? It's not like many PC copies are shipped to retailers so the difference is minimal here. So it's definitely below 1m on PC.

850k on STEAM, Not on PC.

The Dark Souls series before Dark Souls 3 sold 9 million WW, and of those 9 million, 5 million were on PC, the rest on 360 and PS3.

After BloodBorne released, the Souls series is becomed stronger on PlayStation, but PC is still the bigger platform most likely.

You think 350k copies were sold on other PC services than Steam? I'm certain that's impossible. Also Steamspy is taken for gospel but it's been proven many times by developers and publishers to be pretty inaccurate. It's not like NPD.

Also I'm pretty sure last we heard the series was at 8.5m and 3.25m of those were on PC according to Steamspy. I've never heard of 9m and 5m on PC.

I think it's really misleading to put sales of the first Dark Souls on PC on the same level as the console version as it was sold from the get-go for $40 instead of $60 for consoles. After a month it was readily available for $20 or less. And a lot of those sales are from Steam deals where the game was $5. It's happened a lot lol



Ryng_Tolu said:
Teeqoz said:

Ratchet & Clank will be > The Division, and I also think you have DS3 and R&C totals too low. DS3 has shipped 3 million remember?

My estimate, which of course can't be 100% correct but this is what i see.

Dark Souls is HUGE on PC, definitive the bigger platform for Dark Souls.

Dark souls is at 1.5 million in Nord America as for 10 May, right? It sold about 850K on Steam which mean is definitively >1 million on PC worldwide, most likely even over 1.2 million, and i can see about 40% in NA or so, which could mean 500k of those 1.5 million. This leave 1 million shipped on PS4/XBO.

Let's say that, about 80% of those shipments were sold, which seem likely... this is about 800k.

Don't forget that even on console it's digital sales were immense, look at Japan, and North America is most likely even bigger.

It's easy at least >20% digital, i'll go with 25% or more. So, this leave under <600K at retail on PS4 and XBO.

As well, remember we talk about North America, not USA... USA is usually 90% of NA, so i think it's <540K in USA.

In conclusion: i see between 500-550k for Dark Souls III first month at retail on PS4/XBO, more close to 500K than 550K for the reason you saw above.

 

P.S

I made i typo with ReC, i wanna say >250k, not <250k... still, even if will sell amazing well and break the 300K mark, i think The Division will be 350,000 this NPD, so it won't beat it. Imo, of course.

The NPD numbers we get are US only. Also US had a 32% share of Steam PC sales, according to Steamspy. But I forgot this is only The Divisions second month, so it should sell more than R&C.