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April 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware and software up!

Forums - Sales Discussion - April 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware and software up!

Aquamarine said:

Boutros, I guess you can put that 75K number for 3DS in the OP because it's the only one we seem to have gotten.

Also, I talked about the weak Nintendo catalog releases....
Hyrule Warriors: Legends well below 50K
Twilight Princess HD well below 125K
Fire Emblem Fates well below 75K
Pokemon Rumble World well below 40K

...
etc. Cut all of those numbers in half (or more) and you get a more realistic idea about their performance this month.

You can add that to the OP as well...this is a bad month for Nintendo's recent releases. Even Smash Bros. on a combined basis did better than some of them.

Done thanks!



Aquamarine said:

It goes much deeper than that.

ZhugeEX was abused and mocked by the mods. That is not conjecture.

When you start to uncover the truth about the NeoGAF mods...it's like fridge horror...you just unravel layer after layer after layer of arrogance, abuse, favoritism, and megalomania...and it's just fucking creepy.

There's a reason why they are widely hated outside of their little bubble.

I have personally seen at least 5 verifiable examples of abuse.

 

I know that NeoGAF is notorious for being extremely anti-GamerGate, going as far as to ban people for supporting it and even those who decided to be neutral like Boogie2988. How the mods acted with Omega Labyrinth and BlockLivesMatter, for instance, was juvenile.

However, I never knew that the mods abused and mocked ZhugeEX until you mentioned it. I already knew GAF is bad, but not this bad...



Aura7541 said:
Aquamarine said:

It goes much deeper than that.

ZhugeEX was abused and mocked by the mods. That is not conjecture.

When you start to uncover the truth about the NeoGAF mods...it's like fridge horror...you just unravel layer after layer after layer of arrogance, abuse, favoritism, and megalomania...and it's just fucking creepy.

There's a reason why they are widely hated outside of their little bubble.

I have personally seen at least 5 verifiable examples of abuse.

 

 

However, I never knew that the mods abused and mocked ZhugeEX until you mentioned it. I already knew GAF is bad, but not this bad...

Yup. 

I can show you actual screenshots of stuff they've said behind my back etc...

 

But I'm not petty enough (or bothered) to publicly post all this stuff. 



So, I guess we're going with the 75k figure for the 3DS?

P.S.: Thanks again for all the data, Aqua.



By the way Aqua, I wouldn't be too surprised if the NeoGAF mods will delete any post mentioning you as well. If they haven't already.



ZhugeEX said:

By the way Aqua, I wouldn't be too surprised if the NeoGAF mods will delete any post mentioning you as well. If they haven't already.

That's why I want people to mention my name when they reference any leak of mine on NeoGAF.

If mods are so draconian that they won't even allow people to say something as simple as "this NPD leak is from Aquamarine," then I don't want my leaks cross-posted over there.

I'm literally only allowed to post any numbers as a courtesy from The NPD Group and my contact (who they treated like shit). That deserves at least a modicum of respect.

 

Macro data:

 

April NPD Platform software revenue:

PS4: -13% YOY

XBO: -22% YOY

WIU: +43% YOY

Industry including handhelds: -20.6% YOY ($203.9 million, down from $256.7 million)

Software sales had not been >-20% YOY for almost a year, so these numbers were particularly bad.

 

April NPD Ecosystem software units (excluding bundles):

PS4 + PS3: -12.4% YOY

XBO + 360: -28.2% YOY

WIU + WII: +16.9% YOY

Overall console: -16.8% YOY

 

April NPD Ecosystem software ASP:

PS4 + PS3: -8.7% YOY

XBO + 360: -4.4% YOY

WIU + WII: +7.4% YOY

Overall console: +5.5% YOY

 

April NPD Hardware units:

PS4: (+0.1% YoY)

XBO: (-10.3% YoY)

Wii U: (-24.8% YoY)

360: (-50.6% YoY)

PS3: (-86.8% YoY)

PSTV: (up 100% YoY)

...

Industry including handhelds: -19% YOY (this may help for calculating Vita numbers?)

 

Publishers

Aquamarine said:

April 2016 Software Marketshare ($):

Nintendo: 16.94% (+23.2% YOY)

Sony: 10.13% (+7.6% YOY)

Ubisoft: 9.59% (+97.4% YOY)

Electronic Arts: 8.40% (-28.9% YOY)

Take 2 Interactive: 7.11% (-43.1% YOY)

Activision Blizzard: 6.97% (-17.2% YOY)

= 59.14% of the market with these six publishers alone. And this doesn't even include Microsoft (who is generally pretty weak in the 1st-party software market) It's fascinating how homogenous the retail industry has become.

Aquamarine said:

Continuing on this thought:

 

Ubisoft + Electronic Arts + Take 2 Interactive + Activision Blizzard:

2012: 54.4% of NPD software sales

2013: 58.8% of NPD software sales

2014: 57.5% of NPD software sales

2015: 49.3% of NPD software sales

 

Bethesda + Warner Bros:

2012: 6.4% of NPD software sales

2013: 6.9% of NPD software sales:

2014: 8.2% of NPD software sales:

2015: 18.6% of NPD software sales:

 

The Top 6 Third-party publishers:

2012: 60.9% of NPD software sales

2013: 65.7% of NPD software sales

2014: 65.7% of NPD software sales

2015: 67.9% of NPD software sales

 

1st-party publishers:

2012: 19.7% of NPD software sales

2013: 19.4% of NPD software sales

2014: 21.3% of NPD software sales

2015: 19.6% of NPD software sales

 

1st-Party publishers and the Top 6 Third-party publishers (Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts, Take 2 Interactive, Ubisoft, Bethesda, Warner Bros.):

2012: 80.6% of NPD software sales

2013: 85.1% of NPD software sales

2014: 87.0% of NPD software sales

2015: 87.5% of NPD software sales

 

The USA retail video game industry has pretty much become an oligopoly.

Bundle sales:

>75% of console this month

For example, out of 342.4K PS4 + XBO sales, >256.8K consisted of bundle sales

 

Toys to Life (cross-posted from Disney Infinity thread...posting this because they just cancelled Disney Infinity)


Disney Infinity 2.0: 44K (April 2015 NPD)

Disney Infinity 3.0: 26K (April 2016 NPD) (-41% YOY)

 

Skylanders Trap Team: 38K (April 2015 NPD)

Skylanders Superchargers: 13K (April 2016 NPD) (-66% YOY)

 

Disney Infinity 2.0: 1.764 million (launch through April 2015)

Disney Infinity 3.0: 1.220 million LTD (launch through April 2016) (-31% YOY)

 

Skylanders Trap Team: 1.474 million (launch through April 2015)

Skylanders: Superchargers: 784K LTD (launch through April 2016) (-47% YOY)

 

Aquamarine said:

Here's an indirect NPD comparison:

 

This comparison measures USA NPD sales of each year's release from launch date through the following March.

Suppose total toys-to-life (TTL) NPD sales (excluding standalone toys) for 2013 is 100%.

 

Skylanders:

Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure (2011-March 2012) - 41.5% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

Skylanders: Giants (2012-March 2013) - 53.0% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

Skylanders: Swap Force (2013-March 2014) - 46.3% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

Skylanders: Trap Team (2014-March 2015) - 37.2% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

Skylanders: Superchargers (2015-March 2016) - 18.3% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales


Disney Infinity:

Disney Infinity (2013-March 2014) - 53.7% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

Disney Infinity 2.0 Marvel Super Heroes (2014-March 2015) - 43.7% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

Disney Infinity 3.0 (2015-March 2016) - 28.2% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales


LEGO Dimensions:

LEGO Dimensions (2015-March 2016) - 33.7% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

 

 

Comparison by year:

2011 TTL releases:

Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure (2011-March 2012) - 41.5% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

=

Total - 41.5% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

 

2012 TTL releases:

Skylanders: Giants (2012-March 2013) - 53.0% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

=

Total - 53.0% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

 

2013 TTL releases:

Skylanders: Swap Force (2013-March 2014) - 46.3% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

Disney Infinity (2013-March 2014) - 53.7% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

=

Total - 100.0% of 2013's TTL NPD sales

 

2014 TTL releases:

Skylanders: Trap Team (2014-March 2015) - 37.2% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

Disney Infinity 2.0 Marvel Super Heroes (2014-March 2015) - 43.7% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

=

Total - 80.9% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

 

2015 TTL releases:

Skylanders: Superchargers (2015-March 2016) - 18.3% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

Disney Infinity 3.0 (2015-March 2016) - 28.2% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

LEGO Dimensions (2015-March 2016) - 33.7% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales

=

Total - 80.2% of 2013's total TTL NPD sales



Aquamarine said:

Boutros, I guess you can put that 75K number for 3DS in the OP because it's the only one we seem to have gotten.

Also, I talked about the weak Nintendo catalog releases....
Hyrule Warriors: Legends well below 50K
Twilight Princess HD well below 125K
Fire Emblem Fates well below 75K
Pokemon Rumble World well below 40K

...
etc. Cut all of those numbers in half (or more) and you get a more realistic idea about their performance this month.

You can add that to the OP as well...this is a bad month for Nintendo's recent releases. Even Smash Bros. on a combined basis did better than some of them.

Can you say what is the minimum of those games?

Cause i'm really interesting in FE Fates...how much could mean "well under" 75k?... also Twilight Princess i'll be surprised if is even only 40k lol.



Aquamarine said:
ZhugeEX said:

By the way Aqua, I wouldn't be too surprised if the NeoGAF mods will delete any post mentioning you as well. If they haven't already.

 

April NPD Hardware units:

PS4: (+0.1% YoY)

XBO: (-10.3% YoY)

Wii U: (-24.8% YoY)

360: (-50.6% YoY)

PS3: (-86.8% YoY)

PSTV: (up 100% YoY)

...

Industry including handhelds: -19% YOY (this may help for calculating Vita numbers?)

 

 

 
 
 

 

Numbers don't add up, due to the extreme smallness of Vita numbers and I am guessing rounding. That or the 3DS numbers are wrong and are actually a bit lower.

Edit: guess we didn't have full Vita numbers from last year either so it would make up the difference I guess.

I get -5k for Vita so far.



Farsala said:

It seems the huge lack of pricecuts for last gen has negatively affected effective total hardware sales this gen. I honestly was expecting PS3 to get price cut years ago and leg out to 100m, but it is apparent without price cuts that it would be impossible. This has also slightly helped the new gen sales early gen.


And by slightly I mean that without software early gen these consoles don't move as fast as a late gen pricecut would.

I'm not sure how many more units they could have sold had they cut prices more. I think the main reason the 360 & PS3 have had such poor post-peak legs is because they had already sold a ton of units. By the end of 2011, their peak sales year, they had already sold over 52.6M units combined in the U.S., about three-quarters of their current lifetime tally of just under 70M. Meanwhile, the PS2 peaked in 2002, and by the end of that year it had sold only about 15.9M in the U.S., which is only 34% of its lifetime total of about 46.7M (I would have factored Xbox sales in there as well, but it died quickly after the 360 was released). The PS2 still had a lot of life left in it even after it peaked, and while sales did steadily decline over the years it had good legs thanks largely to very strong software support. Meanwhile, the 360 & PS3 took a while to really get going, and once they peaked they had already sold to the vast majority of households that were willing and able to buy a console. Further price cuts might have helped a little bit, but probably not by much. The PS2 had several price cuts following its peak, but any effects they might have had were modest, and once the PS3 was reduced to $400 that took the wind out of the PS2's sails rather quickly. Reductions to $200 might have helped the 360 & PS3 a bit in 2012 & 2013, perhaps slowing the decline a bit, but once the PS4 & XBO were released that still would've been it for them. Reducing them to $200 might have added at best several million units combined between the two for post-2011 sales, but that would have come at the expense of reduced revenues and profits. I think by time Q2 2012 rolled around and it was obvious both systems were past their peak, both Sony & MS were already working on getting the PS4 & XBO out and they probably figured it would be more profitable to refrain from heavily discounting their older systems, which weren't going to be around much longer anyway once their replacements were out. The 360 has already been discontinued, and the PS3 isn't too far behind it.



Shadow1980 said:
Farsala said:

It seems the huge lack of pricecuts for last gen has negatively affected effective total hardware sales this gen. I honestly was expecting PS3 to get price cut years ago and leg out to 100m, but it is apparent without price cuts that it would be impossible. This has also slightly helped the new gen sales early gen.


And by slightly I mean that without software early gen these consoles don't move as fast as a late gen pricecut would.

I'm not sure how many more units they could have sold had they cut prices more. I think the main reason the 360 & PS3 have had such poor post-peak legs is because they had already sold a ton of units. By the end of 2011, their peak sales year, they had already sold over 52.6M units combined in the U.S., about three-quarters of their current lifetime tally of just under 70M. Meanwhile, the PS2 peaked in 2002, and by the end of that year it had sold only about 15.9M in the U.S., which is only 34% of its lifetime total of about 46.7M (I would have factored Xbox sales in there as well, but it died quickly after the 360 was released). The PS2 still had a lot of life left in it even after it peaked, and while sales did steadily decline over the years it had good legs thanks largely to very strong software support. Meanwhile, the 360 & PS3 took a while to really get going, and once they peaked they had already sold to the vast majority of households that were willing and able to buy a console. Further price cuts might have helped a little bit, but probably not by much. The PS2 had several price cuts following its peak, but any effects they might have had were modest, and once the PS3 was reduced to $400 that took the wind out of the PS2's sails rather quickly. Reductions to $200 might have helped the 360 & PS3 a bit in 2012 & 2013, perhaps slowing the decline a bit, but once the PS4 & XBO were released that still would've been it for them. Reducing them to $200 might have added at best several million units combined between the two for post-2011 sales, but that would have come at the expense of reduced revenues and profits. I think by time Q2 2012 rolled around and it was obvious both systems were past their peak, both Sony & MS were already working on getting the PS4 & XBO out and they probably figured it would be more profitable to refrain from heavily discounting their older systems, which weren't going to be around much longer anyway once their replacements were out. The 360 has already been discontinued, and the PS3 isn't too far behind it.

Eh the PS3/Wii/360 had a whopping 0 total pricecuts after any next gen console released. While the PS2 had at least 2 pricecuts, maybe even more after the next gen released.

PS1 also had pricecuts during PS2's lifetime. It hardly affected PS2, and in fact may have strengthened brand awareness for PS2.

I think the same for PS2. After people bought a PS2 in pricecut form in 2005-2009, lots of people intended to stay with PS which lead to strong late gen sales of PS3.

You might be right about profitability, but for total hardware sales and brand awareness I think the pricecuts would have been beneficial.