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November 2015 NPD Thread! Hardware and software in OP!

Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2015 NPD Thread! Hardware and software in OP!

Slarvax said:
Shadow1980 said:
I predict that VGC overtracked the XBO by at least 200k. There's just no way it did as well as it did last November.

It had a new Halo, Fallout, and StarWars this year. I could see it doing better.

See my post here for my reasons why I feel VGC is overtracking the XBO. Furthermore, Halo was a sales disappointment (relative to past Halo titles, anyway) and was only a moderate system-seller and is unlikely to move an appreciable amount of hardware for November. Star Wars is a marketing & bundle exclusive for the PS4 and thus was unlikely to have a measurable effect on XBO sales. Fallout 4 was probably the only game that shifted an appreciable amount of units, but I somehow doubt it could be so big of a system-seller so as to make up for the fact that the forces that drove the XBO to 1.23M last November are not a factor this November. In fact, if Amazon was any indication XBO sales did not move appreciably the week Fallout 4 debuted, and there wasn't exactly a ton of Fallout 4 bundles preordered, either.

I stand by my claim that VGC is overtracking the XBO by a considerable amount. They overtracked it by 200k last November (and their pre-adjustment estimates are frequently quite a bit off from NPD numbers), so it's not improbable that they didn't do so again this year.



Tagged



medussa said:
binary solo said:
Poll request: Will the NPD result cause crows to become the extinct?


yes, because vgcs estimate will be more accurate, than many think

 

no console will win with a >200k gap

If PS4 wins NPD narrowly it will only be crow-flavoured hors-d'oeuvres being served rather than a full 5 course crow banquet.

What are the implications of a Xb one win? November was a month that should have been PS4's 2 big name special edition bundles and the first time PS4 put in an appearance at $299. What did Xb one have? Perhaps some Halo 5 carry over, but with a somewhat disappointing start and low historical sales for a numbered Halo game this would not be a significant factor for November. The Gears $299 bundle, with gift card at some retailers, was the huge driver for black friday. It's hard to credit Fallout 4 with much of a hardware advantage over PS4 when PS4 ended up selling more of FO4 than Xb one. I suspect VGC giving Xb one a near 30K advantage that week was a bit high, but not significant enough to put PS4 into a winning position for the month.

So the reality is PS4 held all the aces, theoretically, in November and it's possible a Xb one win in November has somewhat longer term implications for the console race in North America than just who wins holiday 2015. It could signal a market shift back to Xbox. We won't know for a few months yet if November 2015 actually is the start of a turning point in the USA, but Xb one winning November narrowly should not be written off as just a tight month.

Even if there is a long term shift the USA is going to be a tight market for the whole generation. Neither Sony or MS will be able to afford to rest on their laurels and assume they have the USA locked in. Well MS can't start thinking that yet anyway since they still need to string together several months in a row of winning NPD before they can start claiming to be the leading console in the USA.

 




“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Hiku said:
Tekken Tag


Team



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

xbox has as much as the ps4
halo 5 carry over, fallout 4 bundle and free game promotions during cod week

first time 299 with even more extras at some retailers during black friday
xbox brand aways bigger in the holiday, while ps is strong the whole year.
just don't be suprised



Tagged.



Shadow1980 said:
Slarvax said:
Shadow1980 said:
I predict that VGC overtracked the XBO by at least 200k. There's just no way it did as well as it did last November.

It had a new Halo, Fallout, and StarWars this year. I could see it doing better.

See my post here for my reasons why I feel VGC is overtracking the XBO. Furthermore, Halo was a sales disappointment (relative to past Halo titles, anyway) and was only a moderate system-seller and is unlikely to move an appreciable amount of hardware for November. Star Wars is a marketing & bundle exclusive for the PS4 and thus was unlikely to have a measurable effect on XBO sales. Fallout 4 was probably the only game that shifted an appreciable amount of units, but I somehow doubt it could be so big of a system-seller so as to make up for the fact that the forces that drove the XBO to 1.23M last November are not a factor this November. In fact, if Amazon was any indication XBO sales did not move appreciably the week Fallout 4 debuted, and there wasn't exactly a ton of Fallout 4 bundles preordered, either.

I stand by my claim that VGC is overtracking the XBO by a considerable amount. They overtracked it by 200k last November (and their pre-adjustment estimates are frequently quite a bit off from NPD numbers), so it's not improbable that they didn't do so again this year.

I forgot VGC did that last year. VGC may have over-estimated the sales benefit of FO4 and may have underestimated the tectonic shift of CoD becoming associated with PS instead of Xbox. We should not forget that most X360 owners never owned a Xbox before and the CoD fans may have more loyalty to CoD than to Xbox (or Playstation), and so they will go to the console that gets the CoD support. VGC also estimates that FO4 sold better on PS4, that suggests PS4 got almost as big a hardware boost from FO4 as Xb one did.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Tag



Tagged for real numbers this time.



binary solo said:
Shadow1980 said:

See my post here for my reasons why I feel VGC is overtracking the XBO. Furthermore, Halo was a sales disappointment (relative to past Halo titles, anyway) and was only a moderate system-seller and is unlikely to move an appreciable amount of hardware for November. Star Wars is a marketing & bundle exclusive for the PS4 and thus was unlikely to have a measurable effect on XBO sales. Fallout 4 was probably the only game that shifted an appreciable amount of units, but I somehow doubt it could be so big of a system-seller so as to make up for the fact that the forces that drove the XBO to 1.23M last November are not a factor this November. In fact, if Amazon was any indication XBO sales did not move appreciably the week Fallout 4 debuted, and there wasn't exactly a ton of Fallout 4 bundles preordered, either.

I stand by my claim that VGC is overtracking the XBO by a considerable amount. They overtracked it by 200k last November (and their pre-adjustment estimates are frequently quite a bit off from NPD numbers), so it's not improbable that they didn't do so again this year.

I forgot VGC did that last year. VGC may have over-estimated the sales benefit of FO4 and may have underestimated the tectonic shift of CoD becoming associated with PS instead of Xbox. We should not forget that most X360 owners never owned a Xbox before and the CoD fans may have more loyalty to CoD than to Xbox (or Playstation), and so they will go to the console that gets the CoD support. VGC also estimates that FO4 sold better on PS4, that suggests PS4 got almost as big a hardware boost from FO4 as Xb one did.

Plus, Sony announced 30.2m sell-through as of the 22nd (iirc), so we know the numbers needed some attention even before BF.