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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)

bowserthedog on 06 December 2018

I'm glad somebody brought this old thread back to life. I remember predicting a few years back that 3ds would eventually reach 80m and many people said I was crazy. But it will likely get there eventually. 

Switch will also blow past the PSP.  I think Switch even beats Wii because I think we will see different form factors of Switch and new updates Switch units with more power.  Its altogether possible that all things "Switch" end up surpassing the DS and PS2 eventually. 



https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0JquK6FGR6O-0O-6L-VAuw

Miyamotoo on 06 December 2018
Faelco said:
Miyamotoo said:

If PS5/XB2 are not some kind of hybrids of handhelds, I dont see they will have any bigger effect on Switch sales. Despite PS5/XB2, Switch still be hybrid/handheld and not direct competition to PS5/XB2 in any case, similar like we seeing now with PS4/XB1 compared to Switch sales.

Switch is not Wii and Nintendo is not same company from Wii period. First Switch is on first place handheld hadware that acts like handheld/home console hybrid while Wii was just home console, so Switch will similar to 3DS have multiply revisions and price point offers, while Wii had only one revision at end of Wii life. Second, Switch is Nintendo's unified platform, that means all Nintendo IPs (both home console and handheld ones) on one platform, and that means strong support. Third, Switch is becoming Nintendos only platform so they will be much more cautious with planning and supporting it compared to Wii, they itself said they planing for Switch to have longer life span than around 6 years.

 

Sure, all your arguments are valid. But in my opinion, there are still several unknown factors. Even if the new other consoles are not direct competitors, the "new thing" factor will definitely overshadow the Switch, and all the PR and articles will focus on the new gen. The image of the Switch could be damaged because it will still be considered "previous gen" (and kids, for example, might want "the new one" instead of the Switch now). And yes, it's a handheld, but let's not forget that the handheld market is shrinking more and more every year since the DS/PSP days, so we still have not idea what the size of this market is at the moment, and no idea about when it will be close to saturation. The Switch could do something awesome and make it grow again, but I wouldn't count on it too much, it would be a (good) surprise. 

I'm not saying "the Switch will fail", far from it (I will surely get a Switch for Christmas anyway). Just saying that the Switch is in a new position compared to the usual models, and we don't know yet the limits and how it's going to evolve with new external factors. So I'm just curious to see what will happen. Could be great, could be less great, but in any case it will be interesting to observe. 

Of Course, we dont know future, but everything looks very bright and positive for Switch, Switch is and its will be in very unique position on market despite PS5/XB2. Buy time PS5/XB2 arive on market Switch will most likely have price point of $150-250 with several revisions and very strong available lineup, while PS5/XB2 will be at minimum $400+ home consoles. Talking about shrinked handheld market, Switch is selling better than 3DS in same time period with difference that in same that period 3DS had huge price drop and one revision, 3DS after two years was at around 30m while after same time period Switch will be at 35m+. Also Switch like hybrid device can attract some of smartphone/tablet gamers because it could be seen like bridge from smartphone/tablet gamers to console gamers, like I wrote Switch has very unique position, not just compared to PS4/XB1 or PS5/XB2 but to 3DS also.

I already told you what will most likely will happen, mulitply revisions and price point of Switch platform, very strong Nintendo support with all Nintedo IPs on one platform, longer than usual Nintendo support, and plenty of 3rd party support (A-AA games, last gen games, Indies, and few big current gen games).

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 06 December 2018

bowserthedog on 06 December 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Faelco said:

 

Sure, all your arguments are valid. But in my opinion, there are still several unknown factors. Even if the new other consoles are not direct competitors, the "new thing" factor will definitely overshadow the Switch, and all the PR and articles will focus on the new gen. The image of the Switch could be damaged because it will still be considered "previous gen" (and kids, for example, might want "the new one" instead of the Switch now). And yes, it's a handheld, but let's not forget that the handheld market is shrinking more and more every year since the DS/PSP days, so we still have not idea what the size of this market is at the moment, and no idea about when it will be close to saturation. The Switch could do something awesome and make it grow again, but I wouldn't count on it too much, it would be a (good) surprise. 

I'm not saying "the Switch will fail", far from it (I will surely get a Switch for Christmas anyway). Just saying that the Switch is in a new position compared to the usual models, and we don't know yet the limits and how it's going to evolve with new external factors. So I'm just curious to see what will happen. Could be great, could be less great, but in any case it will be interesting to observe. 

Of Course, we dont know future, but everything looks very bright and positive for Switch, Switch is and its will be in very unique position on market despite PS5/XB2. Buy time PS5/XB2 arive on market Switch will most likely have price point of $150-250 with several revisions and very strong available lineup, while PS5/XB2 will be at minimum $400+ home consoles. Talking about shrinked handheld market, Switch is selling better than 3DS in same time period with difference that in that period 3DS had huge price drop and one revision (3DS after two years was at around 30m while after same time period will be at 35m+). Also Switch like hybrid device can attract some of smartphone/tablet gamers because it could be seen like bridge from smartphone/tablet gamers to console gamers, like I wrote Switch has very unique position, not just compared to PS4/XB1 or PS5/XB2 but to 3DS also.

I already told you what will most likely will happen, mulitply revisions and price point of Switch platform, very strong Nintendo support with all Nintedo IPs on one platform, longer than usual Nintendo support, and plenty of 3rd party support (A-AA games, last gen games, Indies, and few big current gen games).

What's really promising on Switch right now is there really appears to be a market for Mature AAA ports.  It blows me away that a port of Dark Souls on Switch which came later than the other Dark Souls ports is selling better than the day and date release of Starlink heavily featuring a Nintendo mascot. Its pretty impressive.  Dark Souls Remastered and LA Noire Remastered are doing better on Switch than on Xbox One. When they eventually come out with a more powerful Switch I think you'll see a lot more content getting ported to Switch.



https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0JquK6FGR6O-0O-6L-VAuw

Miyamotoo on 06 December 2018
bowserthedog said:
Miyamotoo said:

Of Course, we dont know future, but everything looks very bright and positive for Switch, Switch is and its will be in very unique position on market despite PS5/XB2. Buy time PS5/XB2 arive on market Switch will most likely have price point of $150-250 with several revisions and very strong available lineup, while PS5/XB2 will be at minimum $400+ home consoles. Talking about shrinked handheld market, Switch is selling better than 3DS in same time period with difference that in that period 3DS had huge price drop and one revision (3DS after two years was at around 30m while after same time period will be at 35m+). Also Switch like hybrid device can attract some of smartphone/tablet gamers because it could be seen like bridge from smartphone/tablet gamers to console gamers, like I wrote Switch has very unique position, not just compared to PS4/XB1 or PS5/XB2 but to 3DS also.

I already told you what will most likely will happen, mulitply revisions and price point of Switch platform, very strong Nintendo support with all Nintedo IPs on one platform, longer than usual Nintendo support, and plenty of 3rd party support (A-AA games, last gen games, Indies, and few big current gen games).

What's really promising on Switch right now is there really appears to be a market for Mature AAA ports.  It blows me away that a port of Dark Souls on Switch which came later than the other Dark Souls ports is selling better than the day and date release of Starlink heavily featuring a Nintendo mascot. Its pretty impressive.  Dark Souls Remastered and LA Noire Remastered are doing better on Switch than on Xbox One. When they eventually come out with a more powerful Switch I think you'll see a lot more content getting ported to Switch.

Yeah, people also buying Switch to play games like Skyrim, Doom, Wolfenstein, Dark Souls, Diablo3, CiV6...in full handheld mode, games that never were been of Nintendo platform before, or at least very long. I am very curios to see what next big mature 3rd party IPs Switch will get next.



Agente42 on 06 December 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Faelco said:

 

Sure, all your arguments are valid. But in my opinion, there are still several unknown factors. Even if the new other consoles are not direct competitors, the "new thing" factor will definitely overshadow the Switch, and all the PR and articles will focus on the new gen. The image of the Switch could be damaged because it will still be considered "previous gen" (and kids, for example, might want "the new one" instead of the Switch now). And yes, it's a handheld, but let's not forget that the handheld market is shrinking more and more every year since the DS/PSP days, so we still have not idea what the size of this market is at the moment, and no idea about when it will be close to saturation. The Switch could do something awesome and make it grow again, but I wouldn't count on it too much, it would be a (good) surprise. 

I'm not saying "the Switch will fail", far from it (I will surely get a Switch for Christmas anyway). Just saying that the Switch is in a new position compared to the usual models, and we don't know yet the limits and how it's going to evolve with new external factors. So I'm just curious to see what will happen. Could be great, could be less great, but in any case it will be interesting to observe. 

Of Course, we dont know future, but everything looks very bright and positive for Switch, Switch is and its will be in very unique position on market despite PS5/XB2. Buy time PS5/XB2 arive on market Switch will most likely have price point of $150-250 with several revisions and very strong available lineup, while PS5/XB2 will be at minimum $400+ home consoles. Talking about shrinked handheld market, Switch is selling better than 3DS in same time period with difference that in same that period 3DS had huge price drop and one revision, 3DS after two years was at around 30m while after same time period Switch will be at 35m+. Also Switch like hybrid device can attract some of smartphone/tablet gamers because it could be seen like bridge from smartphone/tablet gamers to console gamers, like I wrote Switch has very unique position, not just compared to PS4/XB1 or PS5/XB2 but to 3DS also.

I already told you what will most likely will happen, mulitply revisions and price point of Switch platform, very strong Nintendo support with all Nintedo IPs on one platform, longer than usual Nintendo support, and plenty of 3rd party support (A-AA games, last gen games, Indies, and few big current gen games).

 

The switch is the sole heir of the 3DS, Psvita, and WiiU libraries. I expect at least 75 million units sold. Although Nintendo harms and much of the life of your video game, as with the Wii still believe that it reaches at least that prediction.



zorg1000 on 06 December 2018
bowserthedog said:

I'm glad somebody brought this old thread back to life. I remember predicting a few years back that 3ds would eventually reach 80m and many people said I was crazy. But it will likely get there eventually. 

I doubt 3DS will make 80m, its dropping at too fast a rate being down 65% in shipments this fiscal year.

It will come close but probably miss by a few million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Alex_The_Hedgehog on 06 December 2018
psychicscubadiver said:
Not only will the Switch pass it (unless sales somehow fall off a cliff), but I think the 3DS has a shot to pass the mark also. It currently sits at 73 million and only needs another 8 million to do it. I realize that the 3DS is near the end of its life and Nintendo is putting resources towards the Switch, but so long as they continue to produce units and give it at least second tier support it could last just long enough. Sony abandoned the PS Vita years ago and it still managed to sell almost 20% of its final total in those twilight years (~3 million sold 2016-2018 out of 16 million total).

I don't know if the 3DS can make it to 81 million... However there's no way the Switch will sell less than the 3DS.

That's why I think Switch will outsell the PSP. At this rate it's just a matter of time (Unless sales fall off a cliff, like you said).



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Ryng on 06 December 2018

3DS isn't gonna reach 80 million lifetime.
If it does, it definitively won't ship another 2 million to beat PSP. So no i think we are done with the possibility of 3DS surpassing the PSP.

As for Switch, it's obvius will not only reach PSP numbers but also beat it by a solid margin. I hardly see Switch not selling 100 million lifetime.



bubblegamer on 06 December 2018

More than 3 years later and the prediction is still standing. I think it will still be true in 5 years.



S.Peelman on 06 December 2018
bubblegamer said:
More than 3 years later and the prediction is still standing. I think it will still be true in 5 years.

It's not like there could have been something in between that time that sold from 0 to 80 though.