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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Japan 3rd party sales analysis

Cipherr said:
Quantum-Tarantino said:

But expecting any of the three consoles makers to sell 6m this holiday season is reaching IMO. Not even the infinitely supplied 360 and Halo are going to get those kind of numbers IMO.

 

Holiday season meaning Thanksgiving through January, the Wii will sell 6 million EASY

 


 I still dont see that happening. You are saying from the last Thursday of November through January 31st 2008, Nintendo will sell through 6 million Wii's? What is that like 10 weeks? 600k a week for 10 weeks straight and dont forget 4 of those weeks fall outside of the holiday shopping craze as they are in the month of January. I think thats a bit a wishful thinking IMO. I dont have the numbers, but wouldnt that set some type of holiday season record? I cant see any console doing that. 600k a WEEK? Thats insane enough, but possible during the holidays. However 600k a week for ten consecutive weeks.

 

I dont see it happening.


 Probably not six million, but 3-4 is definetly possible, DS was selling like a million for a couple of weeks in Japan during the holidays, either last year or the year before, so if Ninty had enough supply I could see them getting about 4 million



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Once a system hits DS levels of penetration, like the NES did, third party games can sell on Nintendo systems. They'll still get their asses handed to them by Nintendo, though, no matter who they are or what they make. At a couple million unit userbase, however, nobody will care less about third party games. Look at the top games for any Nintendo system that's been out in the last 10 years (GB, GBA, DS, GCN, Wii), and you will probably see the top 10 are all Nintendo published. Nintendo may be able to get a 5 million seller, but that doesn't help third parties any. Look at the top 10 for any Sony system, and you will see a couple from Sony and the rest from Square, Enix, EA, Take 2, Konami, Koei, Capcom, etc. As an analyst said recently, Nintendo has not expanded the market. They've simply resegmented it in their favor.



Shane said:
Once a system hits DS levels of penetration, like the NES did, third party games can sell on Nintendo systems. They'll still get their asses handed to them by Nintendo, though, no matter who they are or what they make. At a couple million unit userbase, however, nobody will care less about third party games. Look at the top games for any Nintendo system that's been out in the last 10 years (GB, GBA, DS, GCN, Wii), and you will probably see the top 10 are all Nintendo published. Nintendo may be able to get a 5 million seller, but that doesn't help third parties any. Look at the top 10 for any Sony system, and you will see a couple from Sony and the rest from Square, Enix, EA, Take 2, Konami, Koei, Capcom, etc. As an analyst said recently, Nintendo has not expanded the market. They've simply resegmented it in their favor.

 the Japanese market doubled it´s size since 2000 and the Wii is selling at a level the PS2 just managed when games like Final Fantasy came out. Shane, you are posting on vgchartz. Just read up the numbers.

 And the (kind of crazy) argument "Nintendo didn´t expand the market because DS sold less than GBA did in it´s life" doesn´t count anymore you know.



DS is half the Gameboy, though I will give Nintendo credit for its impressive sales. However, the only things Wii has passed are Xbox/360 and Dreamcast.



Shane said:
DS is half the Gameboy, though I will give Nintendo credit for its impressive sales. However, the only things Wii has passed are Xbox/360 and Dreamcast.

True. Still GB was 12 years on the market and saw lots of hardware remakes (GBC most remarkable) so you can´t really compare it. GB had nearly no competition and GBC wasn´t a "lite" model, it was something like half a new Gameboy.



Let's talk dev costs... Namco went on record saying that a game developed for the PS3 must reach 500,000 copies sold before it'll break even. That's BEFORE it'll start making money back for the developer. On the flip side, the Wii is so drastically cheap to develop for that a developer can sell only 100,000 copies and still be making a hefty profit. The point is, from a 3rd party perspective, it's a safer bet to spend $5-10 million making a game than it is to spend $50 million making a game, even if the cheaper game to develop won't sell as much.



"I mean, c'mon, Viva Pinata, a game with massive marketing, didn't sell worth a damn to the "sophisticated" 360 audience, despite near-universal praise--is that a sign that 360 owners are a bunch of casual ignoramuses that can't get their heads around a 'gardening' sim? Of course not. So let's please stop trying to micro-analyze one game out of hundreds and using it as the poster child for why good, non-1st party, games can't sell on Wii. (Everyone frequenting this site knows this is nonsense, and yet some of you just can't let it go because it's the only scab you have left to pick at after all your other "Wii will phail1!!1" straw men arguments have been put to the torch.)" - exindguy on Boom Blocks