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Forums - Sales Discussion - Michael Pachter predicts PS3 will win this round of console wars


pffffff
my whole post was erased ...

whatever Happysqurriel, let's say that I globaly aggry with you

Just a point, I m not anticipating anything about end of 2008 since E3 is coming in fews days and will give us all the answers we need.
But from what I know cinematic game are not going to reach Wii this Xmas ...
If it would be the case then her domination will be total.

Time to Work !

libellule, why exactly does it matter if "cinematic games" are not flocking to the Wii? Look at the charts. The Wii's lack of "cinematic games" is clearly not negatively affecting its sales. It's selling at a rate 3.5x as fast as either the Xbox 360 or the PS3. Exclusive PS3 titles are no longer exclusive, and third parties are jumping ship left and right to get in bed with Nintendo.

Your argument is flimsy at best.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007


Third parties are jumping on Xbox360 And PS3 currently, not on Nintendo.
They will maybe jump on the wii on 2008 (E3 2007 !!). For the moment, third parties have just realised, since Wii is selling quite well, that they can make some money on her.
For the end of 2007, most video game that are coming will be released on PS3 or/and on Xbox360. Only a little part will reach the Wii.
Yes, Quality is better than Quantity. I aggry.

Let's say the Wii is not fully diversified to be very attractive for the whole PS2 owners. It is why some people are planning to buy the Xbox360 or the PS3 on Xmas2007 to play their "cinematic" game or others third parties games that are laking on the Wii. (This doesn't mean that wii sales will be bad).

Time to Work !

libellule said:

Third parties are jumping on Xbox360 And PS3 currently, not on Nintendo.
They will maybe jump on the wii on 2008 (E3 2007 !!). For the moment, third parties have just realised, since Wii is selling quite well, that they can make some money on her.
For the end of 2007, most video game that are coming will be released on PS3 or/and on Xbox360. Only a little part will reach the Wii.
Yes, Quality is better than Quantity. I aggry.

Let's say the Wii is not fully diversified to be very attractive for the whole PS2 owners. It is why some people are planning to buy the Xbox360 or the PS3 on Xmas2007 to play their "cinematic" game or others third parties games that are laking on the Wii. (This doesn't mean that wii sales will be bad).

What?

Nintendo has best Quality in hardware and software of all three, and always has. When was the last time you had to download patch for Nintendo game? When was last time Sony or MS game was push back for quality assurance? I dont remember seeing news about Wii failure rates like 360's or firmware patches needed to make Wii work right like PS3. This is non-issue and trolling.

And I see not many third parties jumping on 360 or PS3 that weren't already there or looking to jump ship from Sony to MS to begin with. MGS, DMC and FF have always been Sony franchises. And if by third parties jumping on 360 you mean the 360 getting games that were once PS3 excluses then yeah, I guess you can count those. You also completely ignore the fact that companies like Capcom have announced they'll be dedicated the vast majority of their resources to the Wii and DS now but I guess they don't count right?

Could you plz not make such weakly backed and flame baitish posts, it annoying and rude to people who think with their heads, not their wallets and HD-TVs.



End of 2007 Predictions:

Wii =18m

360=14m

PS3=7m

 

DS=64m

PSP=30m

LOL,
I SAIED ,
Quality was on the side of NINTENDO
PS3/Xbox360 will get more game in 2007 than the Wii, particularly multiplateform game,
But nintendo will have less game (lake of third party) but better game using Wiimote gameplay.
This means that I aggry with you.

About the lake of third party on Wii,
I m talking of 2007 ...
In 2007, Wii will lake of cinematic game that are, for the moment, shared with the PS3 and the Xbox360.
For 2008, nothing is done and a lot of third parties could be released on Wii, exclusively or in a multiplateform way adapting the graphism for the Wii version. E3 will help us to see if third parties are interested in Wii or not.
Even if it is the case, as Capcom, it will have more importance in 2008/2009 than in 2007.
That was my point too ...meaning that I aggry with you too.

As you saied :
"Could you plz not make such weakly backed and flame baitish posts, it annoying and rude to people who think with their heads, not their wallets."
You are rude and you re tying to bash me even if I think something quite similar to you.



Time to Work !

I'm sorry, either my english isn't that good or yours isn't. If we were agreal in the beginning then I appologize for misunderstanding.



End of 2007 Predictions:

Wii =18m

360=14m

PS3=7m

 

DS=64m

PSP=30m

At this time I think every sane person have realized that the PS3 isn't a mass market product. They will most probably lower the price to $500 soon, but so what? That will only have a marginal effect, and without any killer games oming out for even this upcoming holiday season the PS3 will keep staying on the shelves (and reach around 7 mill through dec31). The big boost will be to X360 at $299 and a much stronger fall to holiday lineup of titles.

Early next year - note, after the holidays - when MGS and FF13 comes out, you believe people will just run out and buy tons of PS3s? No way, I just can't see it happen. In a near perfect scenario 2008 (which would require a couple of really great exclusives that we haven't heard of yet) we might see doubled world-wide sales to 400.000 PS3s per month instead of the 200.000 today, but that's still barely enough for shipping 10 million consoles that year (which has been Sonys own optimistic target for fiscal 2008 btw).

So the magic years would be the 3 years from 2009-2011 to start selling 15 mill consoles yearly for the PS3 to pass 60 million. But the total console market is 30-35 million consoles yearly (yeah it will be bigger than that but that's all thanks to the Wii-effect) so how on earth will the PS3 as the most expensive console steal almost half of that, battling against a X360 with a sweet spot price of $199 and a Wii that's selling like hot cakes to the masses?

Wii is the mass market product, and only an idiot will deny it taking the victory this gen. Wii is set for +100 million by 2011.

X360 will be the prefered product for "traditional gamers" and will have sold 50-60 mill by 2011.

PS3 will be stuck in it's "exclusive" niche, with the high price against it, for the larger part of this gen and will have a very hard time passing 50 mill through 2011.



libellule said:

Third parties are jumping on Xbox360 And PS3 currently, not on Nintendo.

For the end of 2007, most video game that are coming will be released on PS3 or/and on Xbox360. Only a little part will reach the Wii.

Well I must say that I disagree here a little bit:

First there isn't many 3rd parties that is jumping on the PS3 for the moment. Those games that is in production has been there since the launch. They are just taking a hell of a lot of time to get ready. Some of the exclusive games have become multiplate and one game have been cancelled for the PS3 and moved to Wii (Katamari sp?). Not only that we have some studios that is backing the Wii, Sega is there with more exclusivs than to the rest. There has also been several rumors that other studios is shifting focus to the Wii. We had a thread going on about just that last month.

Second: I think that everyone knows that 3rd parties were taken by surprise with the good sales of the Wii, so it is not totally strange that there is coming more games to the PS3 and xbox360. That doesn't mean that Wii will have a bad gaming line up for this autum.

Then I would like to comment the thing about cinematic games, I agree on that xbox360 and PS3 would most probarbly have more cinematic games than Wii, but does that mean that Wii wont have any games at all? Let us see, for this autum we have:

Metroid Prime 3: I am for the moment replaying MP1 and it is a beutiful game with good music and a good story.

Resident Evil UC: The vidoes that so far has been released indicates that it will be a nice looking game, if it gets a good autmosphere it could be a great game.

No more heroes: Might not be the most beautiful game, but it has a nice style and could possible be able to win some hardcore fans hearts.

At least three possible good games might get some "cinimatic" game fans to buy a Wii. Of course I am not saying that they will take all the PS2 users, but I wouldn't say that Wii wouldn't be able to steal some of them. In Japan I am actually convinced that PS3 will have maximum 50% of the PS2 userbase. Of course that doesn't mean that it is the cinematic gamers that moves to Wii, but it is quit clear that the PS2 crowd is very large and therefore have a wide range of games.

The last years hardware sales in Europe have not been fueled by cinematic games, they have been fueled by party games: guitar Hero, buzz and singstar is selling very well in EU. So is Nintendodogs and brain age (or training never remember which one), therefore we might conclude that the cinematic market is smaller than you are saying.



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

Oh my god Patcher"



FishyJoe said:
Is losing over half your market share really winning?

It will be be called wining this gen though