Sony is losing more money on PS3 consoles sold in Japan than in other country, and the 50,000 yen version (20gig version) translates to 416$. A price drop this year in Japan would be insane.

You mean like "Who says DS will keep selling at the same rate forever and who says PSP can't catch up to it later in the console race?" or something?

There was a time, some people believed games like Metroid Prime, FF:CC and Resident Evil 4 will make the gamecube catch up to the xbox and the ps2. We all know how it went....

Who says Wii will keep selling at the same rate forever and who says PS3 can't catch up to it later in the console race? what about 360?

It is actually far worse than that ...

Ridge Racer 7 has sold nearly 135,000 copies but Virtual Fighter 5 has only sold about 80,000 copies ...

Wait Wait Wait, lets have a look at this list.

First of all, this doesn't show the numbers of how many votes got it into this position.  If you read famitsu you will know that the game in position one usually has 2,000+ votes, 2, 3 and sometimes 4 have 1,000+ votes and everything below that is generally 1,000- votes.

   1. (1 / 2) Dragon Quest IX NDS Square Enix   

This game is gauranteed to sell huge, DS is the biggest thing in Japan at the moment, and Dragon Quest is pretty much the biggest RPG series in Japan (other than Pokemon).  Will it eclipse Pokemon? I doubt it (but it might) because Pokemong has the two version to work with which a lot of people buy both of. 

   2. (2 / 1) Final Fantasy XIII PS3 Square Enix

A double edged sword, this is pretty much whole hartedly the single most game that Sony and PS3 can rely upon for Japan.  If this game doesn't sell huge numbers, i'm talking over 2 million with continued weekly legs, pushing hardware then PS3 is finished in Japan.  Even with this game it will be hard for PS3 it come back, because with only this title to push momentum (and it's not coming until probably late 2008) then it's going to have to be something special. 

   3. (3 / 3) Biohazard 5 PS3 Capcom

It's funny that no one knows anything about this game, yet it's so highly regarded.  Will it use RE4 play style with rediculous looking graphics? No doubt this game will be fantastic, but on sales front I don't think it will be overly strong.  Biohazard 4 sold over 400,000 on PS2 which had a MUCH larger install base.  Same game sold just over 200,000 on GCN so you've got 600,000 owners of that game, RE Remake on GCN sold about 350,000.  I don't see 5 doing more than 500,000. 

   4. (5 / 4) Metal Gear Solid 4 PS3 Konami

Quite honestly I don't know what to think about this, while the past two games have been pretty huge in Japan, neither of them have sold over 1 million copies.  MGS 3 was 815,000 and MGS 2 was 844,000.   I think this will certainly be a system seller in Japan, but these games generally don't have great ongoing legs, maybe for 4 or 5 weeks and then they will drop considerably.  Definitely the biggest game of the year for 2007 for PS3 in Japan.

   5. (6 / 7) Monster Hunter 3 PS3 Capcom

I am not really sure how to think about Monster Hunter 3 for PS3, while i'm sure the game will be popular i'm not sure to what level.  Freedom 2nd on PSP was absolutely massive and helped the hardware for a few weeks, and is still ongoing with some good legs, hit 1 million in 4 week.  However that's the portable version... the home console Monster Hunter's haven't done nearly as good on PS2 only selling just over 500,000.  My mind isn't made up on this one unfortunately.

   6. (9 / 8) Zelda no Densetsu: Phantom Hourglass NDS Nintendo

Again I can't see this being held back by much, but I don't think Zelda is as popular in Japan any more.  I think the sales for Twilight Princess will be smashed by this game, simply because of the user base of people on DS and because Windwaker almost twice of Twilight Princess.  No brainer there.

   7. (10/ 9) Super Robot Taisen: Original Generations PS2 Banpresto

I don't know anything about this game, PS2 game so not really relevant here, it will continue to have some big hits all through the year. 

   8. (7 /12) Odin Sphere PS2 Atlus

Truely fantastic game concept, I can't wait to play this one, it will sell well and likely hit number 1 the week it is released 

   9. (14/11) Everybody’s Golf 5 PS3 Sony

It's surprising to see this game in this list honestly, it doesn't follow the sales patterns of Japanese 'Core' gamer mentality (the rest are ultra core) this is a game with legs, and this is a game that will probably sell PS3 systems quite strongly in Japan when it arrives, I think this might be a big ongoing system pushing game for Japan, should garner over a million sales.

  10. (11/10) Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors Wii Square Enix

It's a  spin-off but still a massive game, this will help to bring more Dragon Quest fans to the Wii, I don't really have much to say about this, I expect a million seller. 

  11. (8 /17) Devil May Cry 4 PS3 Capcom

Devil May Cry has been on its deathbed in Japan for a while, DMC2 sold just over 500,000 and DMC3 is woeful at under 300,000.  I don't think this game is going to sell huge in Japan, it might do OKAY but hardware base and price will hold people back from buying this game in droves for PS3.

  12. (12/14) Lost Odyssey Xbox 360 Microsoft

Will do another Blue Dragon.  Heaps of people will buy 360's to play this game and then either sell them or return them to the shop (like with Blue Dragon). 

  13. (13/16) Final Fantasy XII Revenant Wings NDS Square Enix

This just came out, and only sold under 300,000 for the first week. Will likely show some okay legs in the coming weeks but nothing fantastic, it's an offshoot game as usual. 

  14. (15/13) Super Smash Bros. Brawl Wii Nintendo

Smash Bros is a system seller and has legs, it might not be most peoples 'most wanted game' but everyone wants it none the less, it's one of those games where a lot of people will want something else more than this but a large portion of Wii owners will buy this game.  Smash on 64 sold better than Melee, I expect this to be the highest seller of all of the games. 

  15. (19/15) Doubutsu no Mori [Animal Crossing] Wii Nintendo

Animal Crossing is generally on the sales level of something like Everybody Golf, I expect this to sell more than Everybody Golf actually, I don't think it will be as huge as the DS version because that's got portability behind it, but it suits more casual gamers than a lot of games on this list and therefore they don't read Famitsu and vote for this game. 

  16. (16/18) Shining Wind PS2 Sega

No idea what this is, can't be bothered looking it up. 

  17. (20/19) Final Fantasy Tactics: Shishi Sensou PSP Square Enix

Tactics will do well, i don't expect a Monster Hunter Freedom, but I expect a nice little push from this when it comes out.  Usually sells very well and might hit 1 million. PSP owners are dying for a new game. 

  18. (18/20) Final Fantasy Versus XIII PS3 Square Enix

Versus.  Maybe 1/4 of what proper game will do. 

  19. (17/21) Crisis Core Final Fantasy VII PSP Square Enix

I expect FF3 or FF6 levels for this game, it wont be huge, maybe higher than them because of FFVII popularity. 

  20. (23/23) Gran Turismo 5 PS3 Sony

The PS2 games have dropped popularity, although I think this will sell better than a lot in this list I don't know the strength of cars and modifying them any more, the scene has been really killed by the Police of late (especially drifting and modified turbo cars) and I think that the Japanese are starting to care less about this game.  I still think it could push over 1 million copies.  By the time it comes out PS3 install base will be much better.

I don't know the point of me saying all that was, but it might help the discussion.  Of course there is no way you can base the Famitsu top 20 on what is going to be the top 20 selling games, it would be completely wrong (apart from Number 1 DQIX will be biggest this year no doubt).  I might save this list and then come back at the end of 2007 and see the rankings of some of these games in this list.

Remember it's a most wanted list, and therefore it allows someone to really vote once, and that is their most wanted game.  Just because something is their most wanted game doesn't mean they wont buy something else as well.  It's like looking at the US and seeing that MOST Wii online users want Metroid Prime 3 Corruption, but I gaurantee that game will sell less than the other two of the big 3 in the USA.  Just like Lair will flop like a fat bum. 

I like your analysis on each game there, but why do you think Hot Shots Golf is going to be a system seller.  Looking at the past games I don't see anything to indicate that it is a system seller, and although it sold over a million copies each time, do you really think this is a title that a lot of people will dish out 600$ to get? 

I think it's the kind of game that is a 'seal the deal' type of the more casual audience. If you look at the sales curve for this game it is very strange, it's always got weird jumping points at different times for no reason (from what I can tell PS2 price changes or retailer deals). Maybe I gave it too much credit as a system seller, but remember the PS3 is only $400 in japan.

From that list damn Japan has it bad. HAHA north America has it best, i love it! FF is FF it will sale like hot cakes, plus the first FF on a new gen console tends to do best for some reason.

That's one of the reasons it's not selling well in Japan, i'm assuming you were looking at the release list.  In may there is 6 games released for PS3 in the US, while Japan is getting 0 releases. 

So pretty much in order to sell well, a game needs to launch on the dominant system. Which means anything not on 360 in the US is screwed.