Looking at Iwata's comments, and what Nintendo's spokesmen have said in recent days, it seems that Wii production is being increased, and soon.

Considering 3.19 Wiis were sold through Dec 31, 2006, and 5.84 million Wiis were sold through March 31, 2007, it seems Nintendo sold 2.65 million Wiis in 3 months.  That is a rate of 883,000 per month. 

By month we can deduce:

January - USA - 435k, Japan - 420k, Europe - ?

February - USA - 335k, Japan - 320k, Europe -?

March - USA - 259k, Japan - 274k, Europe - ?

With 2.043 million of the sales accounted for, it seems Europe likely got 607,000 units over 13 weeks..46,692 per week on average.

If the 883,000 was a manufacturing limit, then I would put Europe numbers at (ignoring Canada and the other countries in the Americas for a moment):

28,000 in January...228,000 in February....350,000 in March - this is likely for both Easter and to counter the PS3 launch.

 With some sales in Canada, the rest of the Americas, and Australia however (among others), I imagine the European numbers are a bit lower for each month.

 My theory is that since April 1, Nintendo has been making 1.2 million Wii's per month.  Using 4.5 weeks as a month, that is 266,666 Wii's per week.  With this increase in supply, Nintendo can sell a months worth of Wiis under the old limitation, in 23 days.  However, I think the increase in supply will not show up in America until May because in April Nintendo was:

1) Sending the larger shipments everywhere in Japan first to build up for golden week.

2) Sending shipments to Europe to limit PS3 momentum in early April

3) Physically sending the stuff only in late April after Europe had been quelled temporalily.

With that said, I think April will break down like this:

US Numbers April: Wii - 405,000  - 90k/week

Japan in April: 325,000

Europe/Others: 311,000

I'm assuming that the increased manufacturing capacity will only be present for the latter part of April.

Once May comes, it should go more like:

Americas - 425,000

Japan - 425,000

Europe/Others - 350,000

When do you think the supply will show up?

They should be producing as many as they want now. So for May we should see a full month of the new supply numbers. And they are talking with other manufacturers as well so that they can up the supply more. At some point they have to start saving for XMas, but as it stands now I dont think they are holding any back.

They will probably up the supply by a coupld 100k per month (if possible) if they see the demand is still not being met.

another great post from the best analyst on that page.

i think i can agree with you, japan's hardware sales will go up in golden week and stay there probably (as long as demand stays at this rate) and the european hardware sales were already higher in late march/early april.

No surprises here.