Weeks ago, I posted a two part article predicting hardware sales for each market for the week ending Nov 4, Nov 11, Nov 18, Nov 25, Dec 2, Dec 9, Dec 16, Dec 23, and Dec 30 (through the rest of 2007).
Today, I dug up the data that went into the article, and compared it to the actual posted data for each region, by platform.
Here is how I did for the first half (the first four out of nine weeks):
|VGC||Predicted Totals for wk ending 11/4 to 11/25||Actual Totals for wk ending 11/4 to 11/25|
While I didn't break down how I did regionally, you can, since the data is above. Worldwide, the totals predicted had a .83 correlation with VGC data. Obviously, it varies quite a bit by platform, and I was particularly bad with predicting sales in Japan in November (Super Mario Galaxy, the PS3 price drop + DW6, the 360 Ace Combat boost), but if you take the .83 as projections compared to overall industry sales, it isn't too bad.
In another 5 weeks I'll update this for December and the entire Nov-Dec period to see how I did overall.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu