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Locked: Comparing actual VGC data to what was projected for November

Forums - Sales Discussion - Comparing actual VGC data to what was projected for November

Weeks ago, I posted a two part article predicting hardware sales for each market for the week ending Nov 4, Nov 11, Nov 18, Nov 25, Dec 2, Dec 9, Dec 16, Dec 23, and Dec 30 (through the rest of 2007).

Today, I dug up the data that went into the article, and compared it to the actual posted data for each region, by platform. 

Here is how I did for the first half (the first four out of nine weeks):

VGCPredicted Totals for wk ending 11/4 to 11/25Actual Totals for wk ending 11/4 to 11/25
 JapanAmericasOthersTotalJapanAmericasOthersTotal
Wii353,000895,000465,0001,713,000157,742979,387477,7221,614,851
Xbox 36017,000670,000161,000848,00036,760749,716224,2811,010,757
PS350,000275,000285,000610,000177,354403,831346,987928,172
DS345,000875,000690,0001,910,000365,4611,257,4961,228,5032,851,460
PSP270,000440,000245,000955,000274,801450,763282,0851,007,649
PS265,000350,000310,000725,00043,028441,736418,457903,221
 ProjectedActualProj/Act
Wii1,713,0001,614,8511.06
Xbox 360848,0001,010,7570.84
PS3610,000928,1720.66
DS1,910,0002,851,4600.67
PSP955,0001,007,6490.95
PS2725,000903,2210.80     

While I didn't break down how I did regionally, you can, since the data is above.  Worldwide, the totals predicted had a .83 correlation with VGC data.  Obviously, it varies quite a bit by platform, and I was particularly bad with predicting sales in Japan in November (Super Mario Galaxy, the PS3 price drop + DW6, the 360 Ace Combat boost), but if you take the .83 as projections compared to overall industry sales, it isn't too bad.

In another 5 weeks I'll update this for December and the entire Nov-Dec period to see how I did overall.  



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

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- Lao Tzu

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So you over predicted the Wii and greatly under predicted everything else. hehehehe I was surprised about the Wii in Japan as well as the PS3. I couldn't careless about the 360 so i just ignore it.



With all due respect, .83 ain't great either.

Should be interesting to see how things pan out with Pachter dropping Dec predictions today.



Looks like the biggest mistake was underestimating the PS3 and the DS. Did you make these predictions before or after the latest PS3 price cuts were announced?