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The Official April 2010 NPD Thread (Data for 4 wks ending May 2 in 3 hours)

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official April 2010 NPD Thread (Data for 4 wks ending May 2 in 3 hours)

Bwahaha. It seems the guys on gaf are pretty pissed because NPD is now only giving out figures for the top five games each month. It's even spawning posts like this.



Khuutra said:
Wii, you're embarrassing me in front of the HD consoles! How can you do this to me?

For the wii, i heard there were supply constraints. Its most likely nintendo purposely shipped fewer of the regular wii's in preparation of the new wii bundles that just came out.



Monster Hunter Tri

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ID: 94BRVX

haxxiy said:
Taking out a margin of error of 10%, you'll have PS3 overtracked 8k, X360 overtracked 25K, Wii overtracked 47k.

 I think that's a little over simplified. You're assuming NPD has no margin for error when it does, because they are still estimating totals based on a sample (probably a wider sample than VGC, but still a sample). So I'd say NPD could have a MoE of maybe 5%.

If you factor in both VGC And NPD MoE you might find that the only console that's possibly outside the MoE is 360. Wii might be inside MoE because of the higher absolute number of sales, but perhaps Wii might also be outside MoE; I haven't done all the maths. Taking NPD MoE and VGC MoE into account I think PS3 is pretty much fine along with DS and PSP.

You can basically ignore NPD lower margin for error  (and VGC upper) when NPD<VGC and the other way round when VGC>NPD for the purposes of this discussion because with 2 sets of sampling data the true sales number of each console is most likely to be between the 2 estimates, not outside the 2 estimates. VGC also has an additional MoE on the basis that it estimates USA only sales as 83% of total Americas when that % will fluctuate month to month.

So the true 360 sales it somewhere between 185K and 233K, leaning closer to 185K. However the matter to consider for VGC adjustments is whether the true sales number is likely to be 10% (arbitrary MoE) less than VGC. How likely is true 360 sales to be <210K? Look at the MoE for NPD (est 5%). NPD MoE suggests true sales for 360 could be up to 203K. That's a MoE gap of 7K, making it reasonably likely that VGC 360 numbers are slightly overtracked, but not in a horrendous game changing sort of way. If the MoE's overlap then it means VGC's estimate is OK provided people know they are an estimate. Hence the statistical tie concept that people like to make fun of.

So April NPD 360 & PS3 are statistically tied.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

makingmusic476 said:
Bwahaha. It seems the guys on gaf are pretty pissed because NPD is now only giving out figures for the top five games each month. It's even spawning posts like this.

Ha, I'm reading the thread right now. Sure, the numbers this month are depressing, but Vgchartz is on the way up. Too awesome.



 

 

darkheart709 said:
Khuutra said:
Wii, you're embarrassing me in front of the HD consoles! How can you do this to me?

For the wii, i heard there were supply constraints. Its most likely nintendo purposely shipped fewer of the regular wii's in preparation of the new wii bundles that just came out.

In my area we've still been in pretty short supply of both Wii and ps3.  We finally got a decent number of Wiis in when they released the new bundles last Sunday.

But that shouldn't matter for our numbers at least.  According to ioi, there are no longer supply issues in regards to whatever sources he uses as samples, thus supply issues would have no affect on his extrapolations.



binary solo said:
haxxiy said:
Taking out a margin of error of 10%, you'll have PS3 overtracked 8k, X360 overtracked 25K, Wii overtracked 47k.

 I think that's a little over simplified. You're assuming NPD has no margin for error when it does, because they are still estimating totals based on a sample (probably a wider sample than VGC, but still a sample). So I'd say NPD could have a MoE of maybe 5%.

If you factor in both VGC And NPD MoE you might find that the only console that's possibly outside the MoE is 360. Wii might be inside MoE because of the higher absolute number of sales, but perhaps Wii might also be outside MoE; I haven't done all the maths. Taking NPD MoE and VGC MoE into account I think PS3 is pretty much fine along with DS and PSP.

You can basically ignore NPD lower margin for error  (and VGC upper) when NPDNPD for the purposes of this discussion because with 2 sets of sampling data the true sales number of each console is most likely to be between the 2 estimates, not outside the 2 estimates. VGC also has an additional MoE on the basis that it estimates USA only sales as 83% of total Americas when that % will fluctuate month to month.

So the true 360 sales it somewhere between 185K and 233K, leaning closer to 185K. However the matter to consider for VGC adjustments is whether the true sales number is likely to be 10% (arbitrary MoE) less than VGC. How likely is true 360 sales to be <210K? Look at the MoE for NPD (est 5%). NPD MoE suggests true sales for 360 could be up to 203K. That's a MoE gap of 7K, making it reasonably likely that VGC 360 numbers are slightly overtracked, but not in a horrendous game changing sort of way. If the MoE's overlap then it means VGC's estimate is OK provided people know they are an estimate. Hence the statistical tie concept that people like to make fun of.

So April NPD 360 & PS3 are statistically tied.

I explained some of it already. See my previous answers for some clarification.



 

 

 

 

 

Hyruken said:
psrock said:
Hyruken said:
Ail said:
Hyruken said:
Wow those sales are bad.
Again this is i think now conclusive proof that both 360 and PS3 demand is starting to get to saturation point. Both are up on last year but both in comparison to the previous year PS3 is down on sales while 360 is only barely up by like 1k.

So what is interesting about those numbers is that in USA compared to the last time PS3 price cut the numbers are down this time. Which again throws further evidence into the fre to support Sources theory that this gen peak has gone.

PS3 did 159k last year, it's not down.........

 


No you misunderstood what i said. I said they are up over last years figures. But PS3 is down compared to it's 2008 figures while 360 only just beat it's 2008 numbers. 2008 was the year coming in off the back of the previous PS3 price cut. Which prooves that the price cut effect is/has started to now ware off.

you are trying way to hard.

 


There is no trying about it. What i have showed is that Aprill 2010 is not the best April in sales for PS3. It did better in 2008.

Now i don't know about you but coming in off the back off a price cut, new model, quality titles etc i find that surprising.

I wouldn't be calling PS3 past it's peak just yet because:

a) Sony are predicting FY 2010/2011 to ship 15M PS3s which is the highest year yet

b) there are guaranteed to be further price cuts

c) this is one month's data

d) this is only USA not the world, so even if USA has peaked it doesn't mean PS3 has peaked

e) You need to wait and see whether Sony says April was still supply constrained for PS3

f) I dunno what f) could be but there probably is one.

@ your reply to my first reply. Yes you did explain some of it in other posts, but that still doesn't make the basis for your assertions sound, it simply highlighted the mathematical bias in your figures (note I said mathematical, not personal). If you ignore the MoE in one set of data and proceed to draw conclusions then there is an inherent bias in the conclusion in favour of that set of data. More reliable =/= absolute reliability.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Of course April 2010 is below April 2008

GTA4 came out in April 2008



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

According to the independent NPD Group, Nintendo’s Wii™ system and Nintendo DS™ family of systems outsold all other gaming hardware in the United States during the month of April. Even before the announcement of the new Wii hardware package, U.S. sales of the Wii console topped 277,000 for the month. Meanwhile, the Nintendo DS family of hand-held systems sold more than 440,000 units nationwide. Together, Nintendo video game system sales represented 60 percent of all hardware sold in the United States in April.

“Consumers recognize the unprecedented combination of value and fun offered by Nintendo game systems,” said Cammie Dunaway, Nintendo of America’s executive vice president of Sales & Marketing. “But including even more hardware and software with every Wii system should drive consumer interest even higher.”

New additions to the basic Wii package in North America went on sale May 9. In addition to a Wii console, one Wii Remote™ controller, one Nunchuk™ controller and a copy of the Wii Sports™ game, each system now comes bundled with a copy of Wii Sports Resort™ and a Wii MotionPlus™ accessory. Consumers can also choose between two hardware color schemes: white or black. The suggested retail price of the system remains unchanged at $199.99.

Six of the top 10 best-selling games of April play on Nintendo systems. These include Pokémon™ SoulSilver Version at No. 2 with nearly 243,000 sold, New Super Mario Bros.™ Wii at No. 3 with more than 200,000 sold, Pokémon HeartGold Version at No. 4 with more than 192,000 sold, Wii Sports Resort™ with Wii MotionPlus at No. 5 with more than 179,000 sold, Just Dance by Ubisoft at No. 8 with more than 144,000 sold and Wii Fit™ Plus with the Wii Balance Board™ accessory at No. 10 with more than 130,000 sold.



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)

Nobody has said PS3 stock issues are the problem, as an excuse



 

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