Well, much to my surprise the race between the PS3 & 360 is getting real close (PS3 actually beat 360 last week, after some post-adjustments were made).

Myself (like a few others) were happy to bet that the 360 would easily outsell the PS3 (worldwide) this holiday season. I still think it will - but not so confident anymore.

Lets examine the figures in detail for this week (ending Nov 17th):

360:

] Japan 5.6k [

The recent AC boost in Japan was short lived, and consumers seem to have forgotten about the 360 again. MS must be a little disappointed at their inability to build any real momentum in the region. 

] Others 64.5k [

The most interesting of all the regions for the 360, it appears that Europe is slightly underperforming. The Halo effect has worn off, and they desperately need Mass Effect (or some other hit) to really boost sales in the region. They are in direct competition with the PS3 in Europe, and it seems that the brand name/reliability issues have more credence here.

That said - their growth in the region is still reasonable (outgrew the PS3 in % terms last week).

] US 154k [

After seeing incredible sales in the US for a few weeks, the 360 has slipped back a notch. This may be due to increasing competition from the PS3 (price cut), and from Ninty flooding the market with Wii hardware. Regardless, this is still an incredible year in terms of software - and the 360 is dominating in terms of unit sales (where it matters).

It still holds a commanding lead against the PS3 (almost 2:1) in terms of hardware sales in the region.

PS3: 

] Japan 56k [

The first full week of sales for the new PS3 models (+ price cut, etc..) has seen solid PS3 sales continue. Sales this week got close to matching the 1-day sales from last week (40Gig launch), plus any sales from throughout the week.

Its this boost in PS3 sales that has significantly changed the landscape. With the PS3 outselling the 360 in Japan by approx 50k - this makes up much of the ground that MS has gained in the US.

Its a dangerous sign for MS, as this is what killed the XBOX vrs PS2 last generation - they never had a chance in Japan, and they had to play catch up in all other territories to match them.

That said - this is effectively "first week" sales, and if the patterns from Europe/US are matched - sales would expect to drop 25%-50% over the coming weeks. However, this WILL be masked by the fact that we are entering the holiday buying season - and there is a good chance sales will remain high until the holiday season tapers off in Jan '08.

Of all the figures to watch next week - this is probably the most important (in terms of "this" race). But with Winning Eleven (Pro Evol) hitting next week in Japan, its quite possible that sales will increase - not drop.

] Others 80k [

Sales are pretty solid for the PS3 in Europe, pretty much as expected. Expect them to continue to rise as holiday shopping starts. Unless MS can pull something out of the bag, expect the PS3 to outperform the 360 here (for various reasons) this season. That said - it should be close.

If 360/PS3 experience the same percentage growth from last week - both consoles will be neck-to-neck in the region.

The other issue in Europe, is that the PS2 is still quite strong - and this may hamper PS3 sales. 

] US 88k [

Although there has been significant growth (thanks to price cuts, new models + software) - the PS3 still continues to underperform (compared to the 360 anyway) in the US. The software lineup in the US is much stronger for the 360 (for the market), and recent PS3 exclusives have "effectively" tanked. Stories of GH3 & Assassins Creed not running as well on the PS3  (compared to the 360) wouldn't help either.

Potential for real growth here for Sony - but they need some better, quality exclusives that match the market (which to date haven't arrived). Expect the 360 to maintain a solid lead over the PS3 in this market for now.

...

Looking to the future...

I expect the 360 to comfortably beat the PS3 next week - primarily due to Black Friday. US sales are likely to boost across the board by 50% (or more) for the week - giving the 360 an ever larger weekly lead than is normal (possibly 100k-150k). This may be further boosted by the release of Mass Effect - the ultra-hyped 360 exclusive.

PS3 figures in Japan may slip a little (say down to 50k), where Europe should experience solid, across the board growth - possibly bringing both consoles closer to neck-and-neck.

Post next week - I'm not so sure. The 360 will comfortably win the US holiday battle (against the PS3 anyway), and in the end it may come down to whether Sony can build a solid sales gain over MS in Europe - or whether sales deadlock.

You would imagine Sony would need to pull back 20k-30k / week (at least), to combine with sales in Japan - to match the 360 lead in the US.

This does depend on the Japan market though - which is a wildcard at the moment. If PS3 sales explode in Japan (possible, but unlikely I would think - until the Xmas selling weeks anyway) - then Sony could overtake any lead MS has in the US - and pull off a surprise winner this Xmas.

Doing so, would pose serious questions for MS going forward.

May be interesting to see how the wii fares too... It's supply constrained, and so the PS3 and 360 have a chance at dominating with stockpiles of consoles that consumers may be forced to settle for...

I left the Wii out of this on purpose, and I don't think any of the consoles will touch it this holiday.

Yes - it is supply constrained - but that also means it will only sell 5-7m units - more than any of the others can dream for.

DS & Wii will be shoe-ins for #1 & #2 (worldwide) this holiday season. PSP / PS2 probably #3 / #4. 

The answer is simple for both the 360 and the PS3. If they want a future, they have to start digging into the the Wii's audience. Whoever can successfully cannibalize the Wii's sales to some extend will be more successful than the other.

Well please let us not bring the WII into this....

YES a VERY interesting battle


this is without Ps3 having ANY significant exclusives this year (considering Uncarted has bombed)

Well if a consumer is forced to settle for a different console aside from the Wii I imagine they'd lean towards the $279 Core Package with the two game bundle and likely some sort of in-store promotion over the $399 PS3.

However we'll see.

Looking forward this is Sony's chance to shine since I cannot imagine another PS3 pricecut for a long while.

One problem for the PS3 in PAL regions is that so many games got delayed to 2008 there (even ones which are getting released this year in USA).

I think that won't affect sales in countries where the Playstation brand is really strong (i.e. southern European countries), but it will definitely affect them in other countries. To tell the truth, in Portugal (the one I can knowledgeably speak about), Microsoft and Nintendo are barely trying. Little advertisement, crappy distributors, etc. It's a small country (10 million people, and poorer than the rest of Western Europe; although apparently rich enough to buy a 600 € console, go figure), so I can't blame them much, but if the situation is the same in Spain and Italy that definitely explains why the PS3 is stronger there than in the rest of the world.

why do you say uncharted bombed? Didnt it just launch yesterday like Mass Effect?

Microsoft still has Lost Odyssey comming in Japan and Kingdom under fire in US in Dec.

Its had some form of release from last week.

I expect sales to be similar to R&C - which is actually getting better scores, and is a more established brand name.

At this stage, CoD, GH3 & Assassins are looking like the big PS3 sellers this holiday.