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[Machiavellian]

LurkerJ said:

sundin13 said:
Overall, my take on the recent trade deal announcements (China deal and new NAFTA) is that both of them are positive steps, but they fall miles short of the radical re-imagining of economic systems, or the economic relationship between countries that Trump seemed to be aiming for. There will likely be small scale positive effects in specific areas of the US economy, but it is unlikely to significantly alter the economy at large. It seems predictions related to growth have largely remained in place, with many economists stating that the most significant change is a decrease in uncertainty and a decrease in tariffs (both solving problems that Trump created) while the actual text of the deal seems to be expected to have a much more minor impact.

I struggle to see this as a win for Trump. We went into this trade war with some fairly largely demands, and what we received at the end is a step towards normal in return for some minor agreements that wouldn't be surprising to see in the absence of this whole debacle.

I have to point out that this "debacle" has been largely positive as it allowed American companies to diversify their supply chains out of China. These tariffs are the reason countries like India are stepping up their manufacturing game, allowing China to monopolize industrial production has been terrible for all countries, not just the USA. 

Why would you want to allow one country to withhold all the manufacturing power of our most used devices? That's a recipe for disaster, the whole world was willingly allowing Beijing to become their sole provider of their most used goods because of greed, something had to be done about it.

It's good for the tariffs to continue and for other countries with cheap labor to step up so that the competition for manufacturing is resuscitated, and you can't just simply say "it would've happened anyway" because as far as most politicians are concerned, it was a non-issue to continue to concede to China because they wanted that sweet cheap access to their sweatshops. 

Make no mistake, China was hit by the trade war and it's not over, if they want tariffs to be lifted they have to make more concessions in Phase two, and time isn't on their side as other countries will slowly replicate their successful formula, which would be the best case scenario because competition is good.

Not to mention, so far the consumers haven't been negatively affected by these tariffs despite the extreme and the continuous warnings issued by mainstream media outlets. So the longer phase two takes, the more diversified supply chains will become which is better for everyone. 

What I am trying to figure out is what exactly did this actually solve.  Will this decrease the trade deficit which Trump touted as one of his main points. Does this solve China backing their companies and low balling products into the marketplace.  This trade deal actually solves none of the things we went into the war for and it smells exactly like the deal made with North Korea where Trump was touting that one but end up being garbage.  The only thing we really get out of this is that China will go back to buying soybeans another other commodities they already was buying from us.  The fact that this deal was put on the table a long time ago by China and Trump turned it down multiple times only means he accepted it now because it election time.  He needed a win which is basically nothing but he will sell it to you as if he climbed a mountain while he was just giving scraps from the table.  This deal changes nothing between China and the US and it definitely doesn't change anything in how Chian operate.