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[sundin13]

EricHiggin said:

sundin13 said:
Overall, my take on the recent trade deal announcements (China deal and new NAFTA) is that both of them are positive steps, but they fall miles short of the radical re-imagining of economic systems, or the economic relationship between countries that Trump seemed to be aiming for. There will likely be small scale positive effects in specific areas of the US economy, but it is unlikely to significantly alter the economy at large. It seems predictions related to growth have largely remained in place, with many economists stating that the most significant change is a decrease in uncertainty and a decrease in tariffs (both solving problems that Trump created) while the actual text of the deal seems to be expected to have a much more minor impact.

I struggle to see this as a win for Trump. We went into this trade war with some fairly largely demands, and what we received at the end is a step towards normal in return for some minor agreements that wouldn't be surprising to see in the absence of this whole debacle.

That's how a good businessman operates. You always ask for a little too much, knowing full well you're never going to get it. The point is that if you only ask for a little, you likely will get nothing. If you ask for a reasonable amount, you'll get a little. If you ask for way too much, you'll again, get nothing. If you ask for a little too much, you can now negotiate, and will end up closer to the reasonable amount you should be getting. Sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less.

Sounds here like he got a little less, but is in the range of what was seen as an acceptable compromise. If it wasn't, the deal wouldn't have gone through.

I think there are a whole basket of reasons why that comparison is bad.

First off, this stuff that Trump said he wanted wasn't just something he said to Xi, it is something he said to the American people. Some people voted for him because they thought that he would bring in a radical reshaping of our trade policies. He has not. In politics, you have to be mindful of the people you are representing. If you oversell as a "negotiation tactic", you aren't just playing businessman, you are lying to your constituents.

And second, I honestly don't buy for a second that it was all a negotiation tactic. You have to take into account exactly how we got here. The radical steps, the trade wars, the billion dollar bailouts for farmers, the hit taken to our GDP and the damage done to the global economy. You don't set the bridge on fire for a small nod. If you do, you are an idiot. Like I said before, this is the type of deal that could come out of a good negotiation without the self-inflicted wounds. To only get this out of it, it demonstrates to me that Trump realized he was in too deep and pulled out because he needed a win and realized that his over-the-top measures weren't working. He basically hobbled across the point where he started and pointed at how far he had come, when really 99% of that journey was just climbing back up the cliff he threw himself off...