As others have said, the major game changer, literally, in this alternate scenario is that FFVII comes to the N64, possibly as an exclusive. If it's as an exclusive, I don't see Nintendo's dominance ending nearly as quickly. People don't realize just how stupid a blunder Nintendo's insistence on sticking with cartridges was. That was THE moment they screwed themselves on 3rd party support, and they never really recovered. With Gamecube they made the problem worse by insisting on those stupid little disks, then with the Wii they stopped making their consoles powerful, and the Wii U, well...
For sure though, the N64 would have done way, way better if it hadn't stuck with cartridges. It's obviously impossible to know, but I suspect they'd have outsold the SNES, and probably the NES as well. If it only sold better than the SNES I think the PS1 would've just outsold it by 10 or 15 million or so. But if it outsold the NES, I think it would've also outsold the PS1.
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