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colafitte on 14 February 2019
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Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:

Your 2019 and 2020 FY are very optimistic for my tastes. There's where our main differences come between us. 

And yes, I expect a huge drop in shipments in FY 2020. By 2020-2021 I expect Switch saturation mixed by next gen hype absorbing all the attention by the people who buys switch only as a home console. Remember that sales and shipments doesn't work the same so that's why expect some differences between sales and shipments with more sales than shipments in some years. 

Maybe in 2020 I was too low, maybe 12M instead of 11M and 9M instead of 10M in 2021 would be better. 

Your 2020 is laughably low, even the Wii didn't crash hard enough to keep up with those numbers of yours.

You're expecting way too much from the Next gen launch. Switch got tons of hype, but did that make the PS4 come down crashing? Nope, instead it went on becoming it's best year ever. Also, I'm pretty sure the next gen will have a slow start, as the gap between the Pro/X and the next gen will be rather small visually.

Edit: On topic: I think they will give 20M a second try. And since there will be tons of great games throughout the year I actually expect the Switch to beat the expectation from Nintendo this time around.

The year you are using for Wii to compare is not a fair comparison, because Wii "crashed" in sales in 2011. By the time 2010 ended, Wii had around 50 months in existence since launch and 2010 was the first year Wii sold less than the year before. By the time 2020 ends, Switch will have 46 months in existence. People don't use correctly the years comparing both consoles because Wii launched in November and Switch in March, That's 10 months before its first calendar year ended, and those months have to be counted. And in this case, those months had 3 or 4 of the most succesful games the console  still has, Zelda BOTW, MK8 DX, Splatoon 2, SM Odyssey, so a lot of people bought the console by that time, earlier than normal.

During 2020, Switch is going to stop growing and start falling in my opinion. By the time Nintendo reveals its FY2019 (March 2020), Switch is going to have more than 50M shipped. Yesterday at the last Nintendo Direct people could see how 3rd party games looked worse or even awful on Switch compared to PS4/XBO, and most of them were not very demanding or recent games. How is Switch going to look in 2020 with the next gen then??.

People say that WiiU failed for a lot of reasons, price, bad games at launch, bad marketing, and all of them are true of course. But for me, the main reason WiiU failed was because just after launch (Holiday 2012), next gen consoles were announced. By June 2013 nobody cared about WiiU because all the attention was directed to PS4 and XBO by then. Yes, i know, Switch is not the same as WiiU, thanks to Switch inheriting most of the 3DS audience, but it will affect sales anyway. 

So yes, longevity, new gen consoles plus all the main franchises already launching at least one of their big games on Switch (except Metroid Prime 4) by 2020 will be reasons as why it will affect Switch sales to drop heavily after that point. Despite all of this, Switch, like i said will probably sell/ship around 12M, maybe 13M that year. It will be a phenomenal number yet.

 

(i know i'm sounding like what i am saying is going to be a fact, but it's not my intention, i'm only giving my humble opinion, nothing more).