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[Bofferbrauer2]

colafitte said:

Miyamotoo said:

I change quite a bit my post, so if you can reply to my changed post. Also, thats huge drop from 18m to 11m, I dont see thats kind of drop is possible in 4. year on market for Switch. Only around 10m more than 3DS sound to little for Switch.

Your 2019 and 2020 FY are very optimistic for my tastes. There's where our main differences come between us. 

And yes, I expect a huge drop in shipments in FY 2020. By 2020-2021 I expect Switch saturation mixed by next gen hype absorbing all the attention by the people who buys switch only as a home console. Remember that sales and shipments doesn't work the same so that's why expect some differences between sales and shipments with more sales than shipments in some years. 

Maybe in 2020 I was too low, maybe 12M instead of 11M and 9M instead of 10M in 2021 would be better. 

Your 2020 is laughably low, even the Wii didn't crash hard enough to keep up with those numbers of yours.

You're expecting way too much from the Next gen launch. Switch got tons of hype, but did that make the PS4 come down crashing? Nope, instead it went on becoming it's best year ever. Also, I'm pretty sure the next gen will have a slow start, as the gap between the Pro/X and the next gen will be rather small visually.

Edit: On topic: I think they will give 20M a second try. And since there will be tons of great games throughout the year I actually expect the Switch to beat the expectation from Nintendo this time around.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 14 February 2019