colafitte said:
We had a lot of discussions about Switch sales for weeks last year, and most of the times you said 12-13M shipped was too low. Why then we spent so many discussions like this one today if we agreed on the same number then? You said 18-20M (and you expected more 19M than 18M), a range way bigger than my prediction that always was 17-18M (when i said multiple times i expected more close to 17M), and despite all of that, you was wrong and i was right. You never accepted back then me saying Switch was going to ship 9M like you don't accept now me saying that Switch is going to ship 17M. It was the same then as is now. You used the same kind of words you are using now. You keep repeating i was wrong on Pokemon Let's go sales and that's wrong too. I always said i expected 10M in 2018 and i was right. As for Smash Bros, i expected more than 4M 1st week (4-4'5M to be specific) and 8'5M sold by the end of the month. Do you know exactly how much it sold??, because i don't. I probably was a little below but not that much as you want to say. Smash shipping 12M could mean 10M sold i guess, but that's the closest we can get to know exact sales. That's the most i've been wrong with my predictions this holidays. And thanks by the way to say i was right on Spiderman sales, Pokemon Let's Go sales, PS4 sales, XBO sales (according to VGC), Switch sales (according to VGC) and shipments just by pure luck.....That hurt me. I must be the luckiest person ever then. Just because i failed a prediction in the game that was voted the most surprising in terms of sales in this very site, now i have to drop my convictions about my predictions....mmmm no sir. You have to start accepting i have different opinions than you, and after being right most of the last ones, i expected at least some improvement in respecting my opinion, but seems that we're again at the same spot as before. I will apreciate if you lowered your condescending tone about me. It's almost insulting. Stop insinuating i'm stupid please. I gave my opinion in this thread, you quote me, and i answered you, multiple times. I don't know how much you want from me. It seems you want me to say what you want and if there is something i don't say is because i'm missing the point or because i don't know what i'm talking about, and the only reason is because i just don't want to be so specific about each game Switch has this year. I know them all, and despite all of that, ports and indies are not going to help Switch sales, period. If what you want from me is me changing my opinion is not going to happen just because the reasons you are mentioning. I'm not convinced, that's all. I respect your opinion and everyone elses here. Some day i'm going to be wrong (100% happening, it's inevitable), or maybe very wrong in what i predict. When that happens, don't worry, i will be there and i will admit my mistakes. I have no problems at all. Until then i will keep my opinion on this. |
What 12-13m shipped? I was pretty clear, I was expecting 18-19m first, and later when sales numbers start apearing (early Janaury) I said that even 20m is possible and I start expecting 19m+. Also fact is that I said Switch will ship around 10m in Q3, guess what, Switch shipped 9.4m in Q3. But like I wrote, what I did expect is that Q4 will better than last year, last year Q4 was 2.9m, and I said this FY will be minimum 3m+, and Nintendo now forecasted 2.5m for Q4. My low estimate was Q3 around 10m and Q4 around 3m+, and that would put Switch at least 18m+ (because Switch done 5.1m in Q1 + Q2), later I start saying that I expect around 10-11m for Q3 and around 4m for Q4. I was wrong, I already addmit that, its not shame to be wrong, its shame to not admit that. On other hand you missed both Pokemon and Smash Bros for couple of millions.
I am pretty sure you said Pokemon will be below 10m and even below Smash Bros. Predicting sold numbers for games is pointless, because only official numbers we getting at end are are shipped numbers from Nintendo, and you cant prove you sales prediction in any case. So yeah, you were wrong for both Smash and Pokemon sales.
I really dont care about your predictions about other platforms, we talking here about Nintendo. Actualy I dont care too much about prediction numbers, I more care based on what you making your predictions.
I respect your opinion, but if keep telling me you think that 2019. lineup will not be stronger than 2018. lineup, than tell me why think like that, I gave you very clear examples and good arguments that very clearly shows in any case that 2019. will be stronger than 2018. and you still keep ignoring that. But when comes to your argument for price cut, "If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before", that clealy show you dont know what you talking about when comes to price cuts, I am sry if that offends you but thats true.
