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[colafitte]

Miyamotoo said:

colafitte said:

What I'm pretty sure is that switch is going to sell way less in 2020. So if you find going from 18M shipped to 12M shipped too much then maybe this year is going to be 17M instead of 18M.

If switch sold 16'5m last year I expect switch around 17-17'5m in 2019 because despite expecting more sales in Japan, I expect less sales in Europe and flat sales in USA.

And for 2020 I really expect switch selling around 12-13M so shipments has to be somewhat similar but if in 2019 shipments go too high, in 2020 they need to be a million or more lower than sales. That's my reasoning. 

I talking about percent not about numbers, expecting around 33% less shipped numbers from 3. to 4. FY is huge drop in any case. There is no way that this FY will be 17m, if 2018. FY with weaker lineup, without price cut and revision will be at around 17m.

So by your point, better lineup, first price cut and first revision dont have effect on sales, espacily when we talk about consoles that yets need to enter its 3. year on market?

You told me 18M to 12M is a 33% drop and too much, and i tell you, that 17M shipped then is more probably so the drop is less.

And the "there is no way...." reminds me of some discussions we had about how much Switch was going to do in Q3 and Q4 and how there was no way Switch was going to ship just 9M in Q3, or that i was missing a point, etc according to you.....As proved..., there IS a way.

 

And don't put words in my mouth i did not say Miyamotoo!!. My point is, not better lineup, probably (not guaranteed) price cut or revision (not both of them at the same time), and if it's just a price cut, it won't be more than $50, so the sales won't be impacted as much as you want. If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before. So without price drop, Switch should be around 16M this year, with price cut or revision, around 17-17'5M (shipments i am saying). That's really my point.

Last edited by colafitte - on 04 February 2019