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colafitte on 03 February 2019
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AlbiNecroxz said:
colafitte said:

18M is what they will aim and expect in my opinion, but I won't be surprised if it's even less than that this year in the end.

Switch is around 32m shipped and 3ds was around 29m shipped in the same time frame, and next year 3ds sales were not better that year even with yokai watch, Pokémon, luigi's mansion, monster hunter games that year.

People have to remember that when you launch a console in March, its 3rd calendar year has already around 6 or 7 months more than other consoles launched in the holiday season, so they already have much time in existence by the time. Switch is not going to go way up after so much time and so many games already. A flat year is more probable than a 20M+ year.

So, yes I voted 18M shipped. A very good number if it becames true. It will allow Switch still being one of the fastest consoles ever.

You have to consider that 3DS have the peak in first/second year, with a 50$/€ price cut and a revision (XL version)... Switch haven't got any price cut or revision by now and is still far ahead of 3DS launch aligned. You have to consider also the fact that most of games on Switch are already bestseller of the series which are belong to: SMO best selling Mario 3D game of all time, Zelda BotW best seling Zelda game of all time, Mario Tennis Aces best selling Mario Tennis game of all time and is on the way to become the best selling Tennis game of all time and so on

Your point in the price cut still yet to happen for Switch is a good point. Switch is not "far ahead". I did say how much compare to each other in the same timeframe 32m vs 29m (shipped). That's not "far ahead to me". 3DS and Switch sold around 13M during first calendar year and 3DS sold 14M and Switch around 16'5M in the second (according to VGC). There's not so much differnece. And the games coming in 2019 for Switch are very very similar to same IP's 3DS received on its 3rd year. And in my opinion, the price cut will not help as much as people expect either, it will just help the sales to not drop.

As for the games point. I see it as..., people already bought that much switch because the games they wanted were already available and were extremely good, so that brought your consumers to Switch earlier than normal.

Expecting Switch to sell way more than 3DS because its softaware is selling better, is not a good reason. Switch software is selling way better than Wii back then and Wii will be very far ahead in sales in just a few months (because Wii will receive its 2008 sales in next months).

Switch sales are amazing as they are. People are understimating how difficult is to sell more than 15M consoles in a year.... PS3, X360, 3DS weren't capable to do it, and Swtich is doing that at $300 price. If it sells 17-18M in 2019 it will be another resounding success for Nintendo.