View Post

## Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool - View Post

Symbios63 said:
 zygote said: The point values are probably as good of an approximation as any, but I think the retailers need a weight based on average revenue generated for gaming.  I would imagine that Amazon and Walmart count a lot more than Best Buy for instance.  Gamestop may be pretty high on the list as well.  I think Target would be the least impacting.  This might clarify more on the Xbox/Switch ordering.

Oh, I totally agree, and that is the plan, I am just saying I will wait for first NPD data before trying to "weight" retailers. And when the time comes, I'll be happy to have suggestions.

You can totally start trying to adjust the formula right away though :)

NS - 155(.30) + 148(.30) + 0(.20) + 157(.10) + 191(.10) = 125.7
PS4 - 127(.30) + 262(.30) + 266(.20) + 257(.10) + 148(.10) = 157.2
XBO - 29(.30) + 216(.30) + 48(.20) + 156(.10) + 212(.10) = 110.3
SNES - 18(.30) + 79(.30) + 0(.20) + 0(.10) + 97(.10) = 38.8
3DS - 0(.30) + 232(.30) + 0(.20) + 74(.10) + 81(.10) = 85.1

Here is a quick approximation without looking up figures and using your point totals.  I weighted Walmart and Amazon the same, Gamestop next, then Target and Best Buy the same.

So order would be PS4, NS, XBO, 3DS, SNES

However a worrying thing is the 0 slots.  I highly doubt that NS sold 0 at Gamestop which at .2 weight would be a decent jump.  Both XBO and PS4 both have numbers for all the stores.  Also SNES and 3DS both have 0s and I'm sure 3DS has sold something on Amazon and Gamestop which would definitely affect numbers.

Even with accurate weights, we would need to account for these 0s somehow.  If we take those in consideration, it should get us close to what we would expect and have seen from NPD so far this year with Switch a little behind PS4 numbers, XBO a definite 3rd, 3DS pushing behind XBO, and SNES last.

**Disclaimer: Point values do not possess any inherent value of their own, but only server as a comparison conversion figure to give an idea on position.  Finding approximate numbers sold would require more detailed data, such as exact revenue value of the specific list (gaming products) for each store and approximate unit count differences between the #1 and #100 items on each of the respective lists.

Last edited by zygote - on 25 March 2018