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Aquamarine on 19 May 2016
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RexNovis said:
Aquamarine said:

Piggybacking on a conversation that you were having on GAF, RexNovis:

Star Fox Zero had a core development team (excluding localization costs and voice acting) of 139 people. Assuming they worked for an average of two years on the project per person and made an average salary of $70,000 each, that's $20 million in development costs. Add in $10 million for localization, voice acting, marketing, manufacturing, distribution, overhead, etc. That's $30 million in total to make Star Fox Zero.

Conservatively, Nintendo would break-even at Star Fox: Zero around 1 million units if the project has an average return of $30 per copy when you take into account retailer margins and other COG expenses. This echoes what Reggie Fils-Aime said back in 2009.


Star Fox Zero sold 100K in the USA at launch. Let's assume a generous digital share----150K in the USA when you include digital.

Now double that for Europe + Other and add 30K from Japan----and you get 330K sell-through worldwide for Star Fox Zero's first month.

I guarantee you that 330K is not enough to turn a profit...I imagine Nintendo shipped 500K of inventory...the unsold portion will just stagnate over time because historically the Star Fox series hasn't had the best legs.

So yeah...this is probably the end of Star Fox. 100K is a harbinger for the demise of the series. Nintendo isn't going to make another iteration of Star Fox if they lose money on this project.

Thanks for the breakdown. Yea I'm not confident it will even reach 1 million LTD with the sales it had at launch. Really don't see it being a profitable venture for them given the lackluster response and the heavily critical reception it has faced. aeriously doubt we will be seeing another Star Fox game anytime soon.

People on GAF and elsewhere tend to clamor for new titles of dormant IP. "Why don't we get a Metroid sequel? Why don't we get a F-Zero sequel? Why don't we get a proper Star Fox sequel?"

But they tend to forget that companies like Nintendo are run strictly as a business. When they lose money on a video game they shelve the IP. I guarantee you that Metroid: Other M and F-Zero GX lost money for Nintendo...so there's no chance of a sequel (Retro Studios is working on a new IP).

And their decision makes sense----if you lose money on this title, the next title might lose money as well. So why bother assuming a significant amount of risk when you could re-allocate the staff onto projects that have a better chance of making money? Ignoring the opportunity cost you would be incurring is what ran companies like THQ and Acclaim right into the ground.

And now that Iwata is dead and Kimishima has taken the reigns, this will increasingly become the status quo. Iwata would occasionally green-light passion projects, but Mr. Kimishima worked at Sanwa Bank for 27 years...and he's all about profit margins and improving the financial health of the company.