Hmm that's an interesting theory but I don't know if it holds much water. Especially if the rumors of a mid cycle refresh are true. The OG PS4 and XB1's could become the price conscious entry points for the brands and the newer boxes could then reap the rewards of that brand awareness as they slowly become more affordable/attractive to that consumer base. It's an exciting time for the industry and I'm really excited to see how this shift towards scalable models pans out in the eyes of consumers.
Honestly I think it will always just be a theory. And even if I am right with sales trends, a generation is affected by many things. So I would never be able to prove it explicitly. But I personally feel the lack of pricecuts is affecting the industry negatively. But it is for a good reason for the console manufacturers and big publishers, as they will see more profit.